He hasn't signed it yet.

It Will All Blow Over By Thanksgiving: The Feiler Faster Thesis  is the Republicans' friend at this point. Mark Cofffey has an illustrative example.  ... P.S.: There's also the Densepack Theory--the anti-GOP media have launched so many damaging GOP stories--see Josh Marshall's list-- that they are all arriving at once and, like fratricidal incoming ICBMs, are knocking each other out of the news rather than destroying their target! ...  11:29 A.M. link

Monday, October 2, 2006

Not So Fast! Are we sure Rep. Foley's Florida seat is lost to the GOPs? One thing pundits seem to agree on is that "there is no question [the Foley scandal] has cost them at least one House seat," in the words of RCP's John McIntyre. That would be Foley's seat. Only 14 to go for the Dems, it would seem. But Majority Watch has already taken a post-resignation poll in Foley's district --on Sunday, Oct 1. (Click on the middle of the three glowing dots in Florida.) The result is:

Mahoney (D)--50%

Foley (R) -- 43%

True, Sunday was maybe a bit early for the anti-Foley voter reaction to have peaked. On the other hand, the GOPs have a whole month for Republican voters to drift back home, especially when they are told that a vote for "Foley" is in fact a vote for a new GOP candidate, Joe Negron. (And how could they not be paying attention to that question now?) ... Actually, Majority Watch did a second poll,--but this time told voters that "[v]otes for Foley will count as votes for a new Republican nominee to be determined next week"--and the result was

Mahoney (D)--49%

Foley (R)--46%

Seems like a margin that can be made up in a district that, per Majority Watch, is 47-32 Republican, no? ...  6:06 P.M. link

CW = Contrarianism + Time: Let the record show that while analyst Charlie Cook may have backtracked from his rash "this cake is baked" prediction, according to the WSJ's "Washington Wire" his Cook Report colleague, Amy Walter, is still pushing the 1994 model, the idea that the GOP's 2006 problem is, in the WSJ's words, "comparable with the Democrats' predicament before 1994 defeat." ... She could be right! ... Meanwhile, ABC's Mark Halperin tells George Stephanopoulos [ at 36:54 ]:

People who think the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate than the House have too much time on their hands to make up theories. [E.A.]

Are  Chuck Todd and John McIntyre  going to take that lying down? ...  12:49 A.M.

Sunday, October 1, 2006