The back of the envelope math is very different when McClintock withdraws. We would get well over 80% of votes cast by Republicans, 15 to 20% of votes cast by Democrats and up to 40% of votes cast by independents. This works out to roughly 48% of all votes cast. I don't see any reasonable scenario under which we lose if this happens.
Perhaps Schwarzenegger is spooked by the start of absentee voting, or worried about debating McClintock, or worried about ongoing scandal damage--otherwise, you'd think the best GOP strategy would be to let McClintock run his campaign, rally his troops and then, at some date much closer to the election, give a rousing speech tossing his support to Schwarzenegger. (See Weintraub.) ... P.S.: Or does Schwarzenegger want to get McClintock out before the Ninth Circuit delays the whole damn election, which could happen next week? [link via Hasen ]... P.P.S.: Not only does sending the memo make Schwarzenegger look slightly desperate--if McClintock now doesn't get out this weekend it makes McClintock seem the victor and Schwarzenegger look ineffectual. ... P.P.P.S.: Should sending out the van Lohuizen memo prove to be a mistake, Schwarzenegger consultant Mike Murphy can always make it clear to reporters afterwards that he never liked the idea. ... 1:04 A.M.
When Peckers Attack: The American Media tabloid empire has finally run an Arnold Schwarzenegger/Maria Shriver expose, and it reveals ... brace yourself ... "Why their marriage works"! Among the shocking National Examiner revelations that have turned the historic California recall race upside down:
Asked by a fellow parishioner at St. Monica's Catholic Church in Santa Monica, Calif. why she's always smiling, Maria answered: "It's Arnold. He keeps me laughing."
An "insider" discloses that while they may seem really tight as a couple and as a family and as buddies:
They are really tight as a couple, as a family and as buddies. Whenever you see them, they're holding hands, laughing into each other's eyes ...
Also, in a bizarre cult-like ritual, every day they tell each other 'I love you'!
I withdraw any previous suggestion or innuendo that American Media CEO David Pecker has taken a dive on Arnold in this campaign. ...12:49 A.M.
Background noise: What's the big deal about that Arnold Schwarzenegger chimney-toppling scandalette? It's ancient history! I mean, it's not as if Schwarzenegger is running ads actually touting his experience as a bricklayer. ... Oh, wait! ... Update: Charismatic Schwarzenegger consultant Mike Murphy today dismissed the chimney incident as "background noise." ... P.S.: If Schwarzenegger loses, which lucky reporter will get the candid interview with Murphy where he denigrates his former client and makes himself look like a hero? ... 4:36 P.M.
How did Democrat Gray Davis pull almost even in the most recent L.A. Times recall poll while Democrat Cruz Bustamante somehow lost ground? 1) One explanation is that the LAT poll is wacky. Nobody seemed to believe the last Times poll, which had Bustamante 13 points ahead, and the most recent Field Poll shows the recall winning handily by 15 points rather than mired in a near-tie. One of the polls is wrong. 2) A second explanation is that Democratic voters were planning to recall Davis and replace him with that nice Latino fellow Bustamante--but now that they're learning more about Bustamante they don't much like him, so they're sticking with Davis. Bustamante's LAT poll "negatives" have risen dramatically ... What's not to like about Bustamante? William Bradley reports he really is as dumb as he's cracked up to be, echoing Weintraub. (You'd almost think they drove to that Bustamante rally together! ... Or that Weintraub was reporting on questions Bradley asked! .. What's that you say? ...) John Fund piles on, describing for out-of-staters the role of Bustamante's puppetmaster, consultant Richie Ross. ...P.S.: Bradley also comes up with a novel, but not entirely crazy, rationale for Schwarzenegger's decision to take money from Republican interests: He has to take their money to control them! (And to prevent others from taking their money and challenging him.) It's all about "governance"! ... A "top Republican strategist" tells Bradley:
[Schwarzenegger] needs to have some control over the Republican Party, especially if he is going to bring it into the 21st century. Popular appeal is not enough; he needs a handle on the party's resource base.