L.A. Times Poll Scandal?
Plus: Recall Wreck Roundup
[Emphasis added] I withdraw the charge. ... 3:02 P.M.
Even Cruz Bustamante's Svengali, consultant Richie Ross, thinks that L.A.Times poll showing Bustamante with a 13 point lead over Schwarzenegger was way off. "We know Cruz had nowhere near that," Ross tells L.A. Weeklys William Bradley. "The numbers on Gray were way off, too." ... Bodybuilders' leads are no bigger than anyone else's! Could Ross be intentionally lowering expectations? Maybe, but only because he actually thinks the next LAT poll won't show anything like that big a Cruz lead. If anything, the rational default strategy in this complicated multi-candidate race is to exaggerate your lead in order to attract support (as a potential "winner") from minor rivals of the same basic persuasion--and, in Bustamante's case, to attract money that might otherwise go to Davis. That may be why Ross says "We have a tiny lead over Arnold right now," while the Schwarzenegger camp says its polls show him "comfortably ahead."... P.S.: Bradley also points out that Bustamante has been just as slow to get up to speed on the issues, and just as unavailable to the press, as Schwarzenegger. It's just that when Bustamante, say, blows off a Q & A with reporters (as he did after Wednesday's debate) because he doesn't want to answer questions about his huge Indian casino contributions, it doesn't get much media play. ... 1:09 P.M.
An exceptionally clear, paradigm-setting business piece in WaPomakes sense of all the gloomsaying on jobs in the NYT over the past two years. The gist: Everybody's waiting for the "large industrial companies" with "cyclical employment policies" to start hiring again, which is how slowdowns used to end. But that won't happen this time--those jobs are gone, outsourced overseas or automated (result: soaring productivity). ... Job growth will have to come from new and newly-important industries and firms. ... Optimistic spin: This is a continuation of a long term trend, with one new wrinkle. This time white collar jobs "brain" jobs are going overseas (e.g. to India) along with blue-collar jobs. That means the job losses don't have the vicious meritocratic bite they had in previous recessions. In other words, it's no longer true that in a free trade regime unskilled workers keep losing out while college-educated "symbolic analysts" (Robert Reich's term) prosper. Now, everyone, including smug high-SAT yuppies, has to adjust and find new work, which should make the process of adjusting (and reaping those productivity rewards) easier to take, politically. ... 12:56 P.M.
I made statements that were crazy, statements that—a lot of them were not true and just exaggerated situations. ...I knew they would get headlines. [Emph. added]
I believe him! The more you think about it, the more Arnold's boasting to Oui smells like pure PR BS-ing. Schwarzenegger, remember, was determined to rid bodybuilding of its homosexual image. So he comes up with a group gangbang incident--not only is he straight, but all the guys in the gym were straight! And the girls giving hummers backstage at the Mr. Olympia contest--that's just too good. Also well-targeted. ('Mom, I want to be a bodybuilder!') ... The "BS" theory doesn't get AS off the hook, but it's revealing in a different way. We know what he's been willing to do to get what he wants. ...His recent accounts of the interview have consistently pointed to the "BS" explanation, and they've been fairly consistent, despite the LAT's straining to find a big contradiction. ... 12:12 A.M.
Drudge Report--80 % true. Close enough! Instapundit--All-powerful hit king. Joshua Marshall--Escapee from American Prospect. Salon--Better click fast! Andrew Sullivan--He asks, he tells. He sells! Washington Monthly--Includes Charlie Peters' proto-blog. Lucianne.com--Stirs the drink. Virginia Postrel--Friend of the future! Peggy Noonan--Gold in every column. Matt Miller--Savvy rad-centrism. WaPo--Waking from post-Bradlee snooze. Calmer Times--Registration required. NY Observer--Read it before the good writers are all hired away. New Republic--Left on welfare, right on warfare! Jim Pinkerton--Quality ideas come from quantity ideas. Tom Tomorrow--Everyone's favorite leftish cartoonists' blog. Ann "Too Far" Coulter--Sometimes it's just far enough. Bull Moose--National Greatness Central. John Ellis--Forget that Florida business! The cuz knows politics, and he has, ah, sources. "The Note"--How the pros start their day. Romenesko's MediaNews--O.K. they actually start it here. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities--Money Liberal Central.. Steve Chapman--Ornery-but-lovable libertarian. Rich Galen--Sophisticated GOP insider. Man Without Qualities--Seems to know a lot about white collar crime. Hmmm. Overlawyered.com--Daily horror stories. Eugene Volokh--Smart, packin' prof, and not Instapundit! Eve Tushnet--Queer, Catholic, conservative and not Andrew Sullivan! WSJ's Best of the Web--James Taranto's excellent obsessions. Walter Shapiro--Politics and (don't laugh) neoliberal humor! Eric Alterman--Born to blog. Joe Conason--Bush-bashing, free most days. Lloyd Grove--Don't let him write about you. Arianna--A hybrid vehicle. TomPaine.com--Web-lib populists. Take on the News--TomPaine's blog. B-Log--Blog of spirituality! Hit & Run--Reason gone wild! Daniel Weintraub--Beeblogger and Davis Recall Central. Nonzero--Bob Wright explains it all. [More tk.]