Next stunt, please!
Next stunt, please!
A mostly political Weblog.
Oct. 11 2008 8:38 PM

Next Stunt, Please!

Plus--Can I vote for McGovern?

Geraghty carves up the latest Newsweek poll, which has Obama up by 11. ... Newsweek's findings that McCain is doing better among young people than old people, and better among women than men, seem especially strange. A party breakdown of 40 Dems for every 27 Republicans seems much less strange. ...  "Never pay attention to a Newsweek poll" is always a good rule of thumb. ... [Tks to reader B.K. ] 5:39 P.M.


Alert reader M. proposes a Downballot anti-Obama Boomerang Effect, in which "The closer the Presidential race, the more likely that the Democrats will have at least 60 members in the Senate come January." Why?

white middle class guilt.  swing voters who vote for the old white guy 
for president even though they think he might not be the right guy, 
make up for it by voting for the democrat for senator

Just as you don't have to be a racist to be a "Bradley Effect" voter--you just have to be worried about being thought a racist by inquiring, politically correct pollsters--you don't have to be a racist to have white middle class guilt about it (or about voting for McCain even if you talk honestly with pollsters). ... I don't know if M. is the first to suggest this possibility--a deeply troubling one to those Obama voters who (like me) nevertheless worry about what Dems might do if they win a filibuster proof Senate majority in addition to White House.  It means that McCain closes in the final days of the campaign--not unlikely--then the Dems are even more likely to sweep the Senate. ... I'd prefer a Downballot pro-Obama Hedge Effect, in which swing voters compensate for the bold, hopeful risk they're taking on Obama by voting to install Republicans in their local Senate and House races. Sort of like a credit default swap, except with John Sununu insted of AIG! ... P.S.: I have no idea if either effect exists, and if they do which will dominate (that would presumably depend on whether Obama surges or fades in the stretch for all sorts of other reasons). But you'd think the second, "hedge" effect would be weak, since whatever happens the Dems will almost certainly control majorities in Congress. How much of a "hedge" do voters think they can provide by voting against their local downballot Dem? Answer: A pretty good one, if they preserve the GOP ability to filibuster. But I doubt late-deciding swing voters think much about Rule 22  ... 5:06 P.M.



Psst, Republicans! The big problem with ACORN isn't the squirrelly  voter registration efforts you are making such a fuss about. It is their efforts to water down or undermine work-based welfare reform. You'd think that would trouble swing voters more too. ... 2:25 A.M.


Friday, October 10, 2008

And do you maybe have some change in your pocket? ... I hear jingling!  I just made a deposit at my bank. For the first time ever, the teller asked me if I maybe also wanted to pay down some of the (relatively small) balance in my check-protection line of credit.  Payments are automatically deducted from my account anyway, so they were asking for a voluntary extra payment. Just to help me, of course. ... I guess they've figured out how to avoid sowing panic-triggering doubts among their customers!... 3:21 P.M.

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