Late polls show the Dem "wave" getting smaller.

A mostly political Weblog.
Nov. 6 2006 1:10 AM

Surf's Down?

Late polls show the Dem "wave" shrinking.

(Continued from Page 1)

It's official! The new Gallup/USAT poll shows the same pro-GOP trend among "likely voters."

A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.

Gallup is the third poll to come up with this finding. It's a Trend. You'd have to be Adam Nagourney to ignore it now!6:52 P.M.

Tight Like That? A good tip from RCP's John McIntyre:

Keep an eye on the Gallup generic ballot number coming out tonight, if it shows movement similar to the ABC/WP poll there could be a big surprise brewing for many people cocooned in Washington.

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In 2002, remember, it was a generic ballot shift at the last minute--downplayed by the NYT's Adam Nagourney--that signaled a disappointing day for Democrats. I don't expect that to happen this time, but ...

Update: A Pew poll also shows a dramatic tightening-- from an 11 point Dem advantage a couple of weeks ago to a 4 point Dem advantage this weekend. One more example and it will be a Trend. ... P.S.: Generic polls may be lousy indicators of what's going to happen in 435 House races, and any individual generic poll could be right or wrong. But when several such polls point in the same direction, it would seem to have some weight at least on the question of who has momentum. I actually expected a last-minute shift to the Dems. ... Of course, the last minute has not arrived yet. ...

More: A knowledgeable emailer notes that in both polls the GOP comeback occurs mainly among "likely voters." The generic Dem lead among the larger group of "registered voters" remains impressive, though it's shrunk a bit. ... That doesn't make the GOP surge phony--assuming the methods the polls use to select "likely voters" are reliable. ... 11:49 A.M.

All Hands on Deck! The Big Finish. ... 11:49 A.M.

Saturd ay, November 4, 2006

Another polling triumph for Zogby. ... 8:18 P.M.

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