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Staying Strong in Swing States
Plus, a new national poll gives Obama a 14-point lead.posted Oct. 15, 2008
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Where the elections stand today.posted Oct. 15, 2008
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Where the elections stand today.posted Aug. 20, 2008
House Races
Where the elections stand today.posted Aug. 20, 2008
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Where the elections stand today.posted Aug. 20, 2008
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election scorecard: Where the elections stand today.

Election ScorecardWhere the midterm elections stand today.

By Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin
Updated Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2006, at 6:25 PM ET

House Race Summary for Oct. 17:

Since our last summary, we have changed from talking about the generic ballot to a more precise look at what's happening in contested races. Below is a list of the 63 hottest House races. Click on an individual race to jump to the most recent polling, or scroll down the page to see how all the competitive races have been shaping up. (Click here for an archive of House Race Summaries based on our previous generic House ballot.)

One of the challenges of using polling data from individual races is that public polls are plentiful in a small handful of competitive districts and rare in most others. For example, the majority of the most closely watched races have been polled only two or three times since late August. So, we have nowhere near as much data for House races as we do for closely contested Senate and governor races.

We do see some clear leaders. Keeping in mind that Democrats need to gain 16 seats to win control of the House, we looked closely at the most hotly contested seats currently held by Republicans. We looked only at nonpartisan surveys conducted since late August. In districts that have been polled at least twice, we see Democrats leading beyond the margin of error in nine districts: Arizona-8, Colorado-7, Indiana-2, Indiana-8, Indiana-9, North Carolina-11, New Mexico-1, New York-26, and Pennsylvania-10.

Democrats also hold significant leads in three more districts that have been polled only once by nonpartisans since the summer: Florida-16, New York-24, and Ohio-15.

That would make a total pickup of 13 seats, but Democratic gains could be much greater if present trends continue. At least a dozen hotly contested seats currently held by Republicans look too close to call based on the available data, and no Republican leads by a significant margin in any district currently held by a Democrat.

Arizona 1

Arizona 5
Arizona 8
California 4
California 11
California 50
Colorado 4
Colorado 5
Colorado 7
Connecticut 2
Connecticut 4
Connecticut 5
Florida 13
Florida 16
Florida 22
Georgia 8
Idaho 1
Illinois 6
Illinois 8
Illinois 10
Illinois 14
Illinois 19

Indiana 2
Indiana 8
Indiana 9
Iowa 1
Iowa 2
Iowa 3
Kentucky 3
Kentucky 4

Minnesota 2
Minnesota 6
Nevada 3
New Hampshire 1
New Hampshire 2
New Jersey 7
New Mexico 1
New York 3
New York 19
New York 20
New York 24
New York 25
New York 26
New York 29

North Carolina 8
North Carolina 11
Ohio 1
Ohio 2
Ohio 6
Ohio 15
Ohio 18
Oklahoma 5
Pennsylvania 6
Pennsylvania 7
Pennsylvania 8
Pennsylvania 10
Texas 17
Texas 22
Vermont At-Large
Virginia 2
Virginia 5
Virginia 10
Washington 8
West Virginia 1
Wisconsin 8

Wyoming At-Large

Data provided by Pollster.com

Congressional District: Arizona 1
Incumbent: Rick Renzi-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ellen Simon (D)	Rick Renzi (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	983 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	50	46
Northern Arizona U	403 LV	5	9/15-17/06	32	45

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Harry Mitchell (D)	J.D. Hayworth (R)*
SurveyUSA	509 LV	4.4	10/13-15/06	45	48
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	4.9	(9/28/06)	38	52
SurveyUSA	590 LV	4.1	9/15-17/06	40	52
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	4.0	6/6-10/06	34	49

Congressional District: Arizona 8
Open Race—R (Jim Kolbe)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Gabrielle Giffords (D)	Randy Graf (R)
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	45	37
Wick Communications	402 RV	4.3	9/20-23/06	52	34
Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/19-21/06	54	29
Arizona Daily Star	600 LV	4	9/16-19/06	48.4	35.7

Congressional District: California 4
Incumbent: John Doolittle-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Charles Brown (D)	John Doolittle (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	997 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	44	52
Benenson Strategy Group (D)	400 LV	4.9	8/29-31/06	39	41

Congressional District: California 11
Incumbent: Richard Pombo-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jerry McNerny (D)	Richard Pompo (R)*
Lake Research Partners (D)	400LV	4.4	9/28-30/06	40	41
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	413LV	4.9	9/24-26/06	48	46
Lake Research Partners (D)	500LV	4.4	7/9-11/06	33	43

Congressional District: California 50
Incumbent: Brian Bilbray-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Francine Busby (D)	Brian Bilbray (R)*
SurveyUSA	581 LV	4.1	10/13-15/06	46	49
SurveyUSA	540 LV	4.3	9/10-12/06	40	54
SurveyUSA	566 LV	4.2	7/9-11/06	40	51

Congressional District: Colorado 4
Incumbent: Marilyn Musgrave-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Angie Paccione (D)	Marilyn Musgrave (R)*
Mason-Dixon	400 LV	5	10/3-7/06	36	46
Conquest Communications (R)	400 LV	5	9/26-27/06	36	43
Strategic Services (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/24-26/06	42	42
SurveyUSA	424LV	4.9	9/18-20/06	42	46
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	996 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	41	47
SurveyUSA	452 LV	4.7	8/13-15/06	42	46
Strategic Services (D)	600 LV	4	5/31-6/5/06	46	47

Congressional District: Colorado 5
Open Race—R (Joel Hefley)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jay Fawcett (D)	Doug Lamborn (R)
Basswood Research (R)	300 LV	5.66	10/10/06	32	49
Mason-Dixon	400LV	5	10/3-7/06	37	37

Congressional District: Colorado 7
Open Race—R (Bob Beauprez)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ed Perlmutter (D)	Rick O'Donnell (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	991 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	47	47
Mason-Dixon	400 LV	5	10/3-7/06	45	39
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	45	34
SurveyUSA	482 LV	4.5	9/21-25/06	54	37
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1014 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	48	46
SurveyUSA	535 LV	4.3	8/18-20/06	45	45

Congressional District: Connecticut 2
Incumbent: Rob Simmons-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Courtney (D)	Rob Simmons (R)*
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	41	44
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	5	9/24-25/06	36	50
Grove Insight (D)	400 LV	5	8/28-30/06	41	40
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1010 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	51	45

Congressional District: Connecticut 4
Incumbent: Christopher Shays-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Diane Farrell (D)	Christopher Shays (R)*
Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal	400 RV	4.9	10/10-12/06	44	41
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	46	46
University of Connecticut	753 RV	3	9/25-10/1/06	41	41
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1011 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	42	42

Congressional District: Connecticut 5
Incumbent: Nancy Johnson-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Chris Murphy (D)	Nancy Johnson (R)*
Grove Insight	400 RV	5	10/12/06	45	40
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	996 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	46	52
American Viewpoint (R)	400 LV	4.9	10/1-2/06	42	52
Westhill Consulting (D)	500 RV	4.4	9/25-27/06	42	42
American Viewpoint (R)	400 LV	4.9	9/5-6/06	36	50
Democracy Corps (D)	650 LV	4	8/13-15/06	44	49
Central Marketing (D)	600 LV	4	6/11-13/06	38	35

Congressional District: Florida 13
Open Race—R (Katherine Harris)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Christine Jennings (D)	Vern Buchanan (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1024 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	47	44
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	400 RV	4.9	10/3-4/06	50	38
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	500 RV	4.4	9/8-12/06	46	38

Congressional District: Florida 16
Open Race—R (Mark Foley**)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tim Mahoney (D)	Mark Foley (R)**
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1001 LV	3.09	10/1/06	50	43
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/14/06	48	35
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	400 LV	4.4	6/5/06	33	59

**Mark Foley's name will appear on the ballot despite his resignation from Congress. Votes cast for Foley will count toward Joe Negron.

Congressional District: Florida 22
Incumbent: Clay Shaw-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ron Klein (D)	Clay Shaw (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1022 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	44	52

Congressional District: Georgia 8
Incumbent: Jim Marshall-D

Polling data that tests a contest between incumbent Jim Marshall (D) and Mac Collins (R) is currently unavailable.

Congressional District: Idaho 1
Open Race—R (Butch Otter)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Larry Grant (D)	Bill Sali (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	998 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	43	49

Congressional District: Illinois 6
Open Race—R (Henry Hyde)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tammy Duckworth (D)	Peter Roskam (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	997 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	47	47
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	409 RV	5	10/8-9/06	51	46
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	43	38
Goodwin Simon (D)	400 LV	5	9/18-20/06	41	41
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1069 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	47	46
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D)	400 RV	5	5/9-11/06	42	42

Congressional District: Illinois 8
Incumbent: Melissa Bean-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Melissa Bean (D)*	David McSweeney (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	997 LV	3.10	10/15-16/06	47	44
Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal (D)	600 LV	4	10/11-12/06	49	33
DCCC (D)	400 LV	5	9/13/06	47	28
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1006 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	48	45

Congressional District: Illinois 10
Incumbent: Mark Kirk-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Dan Seals (D)	Mark Kirk (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1004 LV	3.09	10/15-16/06	44	46
Mellman Group (D)	400 LV	4.9	10/10-11/06	32	49
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	300 LV	5.66	10/8-9/06	32	57

Congressional District: Illinois 14
Incumbent: Dennis Hastert-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Laesch (D)	Dennis Hastert (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1003 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	42	52

Congressional District: Illinois 19
Incumbent: John Shimkus-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Dan Stover (D)	John Shimkus (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1023 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	36	53

Congressional District: Indiana 2
Incumbent: Chris Chocola-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Joe Donnelly (D)	Chris Chocola (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	989 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	50	46
Mercury Public Affairs (R)	300 LV	5.65	10/9/06	44.7	44.0
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	400 LV	4.6	10/4-5/06	52	36
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	49	39
Mercury Public Affairs (R)	300 LV	--	9/17/06	41	46
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/15-17/06	50	42
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1003 LV	3.1	9/8-10/06	52	40
Research 2000	400 LV	5	7/21-23/06	46	41
Cooper & Secrest (D)	504 LV	4.4	7/10-13/06	48	38

Congressional District: Indiana 8
Incumbent: John Hostettler-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Brad Ellsworth (D)	John Hostettler (R)*
Indiana State University	626 LV	3.9	10/5-12/06	54.5	32.1
Indiana State University	603 RV	4	9/6-21/06	47	32
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1031 LV	3.1	9/8-10/06	51	45
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/5-8/06	44	40

Congressional District: Indiana 9
Incumbent: Mike Sodrel-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Baron Hill (D)	Mike Sodrel (R)*
SurveyUSA	512 LV	4.4	10/6-8/06	48	46
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	46	38
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1017 LV	3.1	9/8-10/06	53	42
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/5-8/06	46	40

Congressional District: Iowa 1
Open Race—R (Jim Nussle)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Bruce Braley (D)	Mike Whalen (R)
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D)	400 RV	4.9	10/5-8/06	48	37
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	34	47
Selzer & Co	439 LV	4.7	9/10-13/06	44	37
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1014 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	54	41

Congressional District: Iowa 2
Incumbent: Jim Leach-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	David Loebsack (D)	Jim Leach (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1006 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	48	47

Congressional District: Iowa 3
Incumbent: Leonard Boswell-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Leonard Boswell (D)	Jeff Lamberti (R)*
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/11-12/06	52	41
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	989 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	54	43

Congressional District: Kentucky 3
Incumbent: Anne Northup-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Yarmuth (D)	Anne Northup (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	996 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	48	48
SurveyUSA	529 LV	4.3	9/26-28/06	44	50
Cooper & Secrest (D)	563 LV	4.1	6/20-22/06	46	47

Congressional District: Kentucky 4
Incumbent: Geoff Davis-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ken Lucas (D)	Geoff Davis (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1000 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	46	49
SurveyUSA	459 LV	4.7	10/7-9/06	44	47
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	36	42
SurveyUSA	427 LV	4.8	9/16-18/06	48	44
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	963 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	46	49
SurveyUSA	656 LV	3.9	8/7-9/06	44	46
SurveyUSA	447 LV	4.7	7/22-24/06	50	41

Congressional District: Minnesota 1
Incumbent: Gil Gutknecht-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tim Walz (D)	Gil Gutknecht (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1024 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	47	48

Congressional District: Minnesota 2
Incumbent: John Kline-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Coleen Rowley (DFL)	John Kline (R)*
SurveyUSA	519 LV	4.4	10/13-15/06	42	50
SurveyUSA	520 LV	4.4	9/24-26/06	35	55

Congressional District: Minnesota 6
Incumbent: Mark Kennedy-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Patty Wetterling (DFL)	Michelle Bachman (R)
Minneapolis Star Tribune	506 LV	4.5	10/6-12/06	48	40
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	995 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	50	45
SurveyUSA	669 LV	3.9	10/6-8/06	44	47
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	43	46
SurveyUSA	641 LV	3.9	9/15-17/06	41	50

Congressional District: Nevada 3
Incumbent: Jon Porter-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tessa Hafen (D)	Jon Porter (R)*
Mason-Dixon	400 RV	5	9/19-21/06	37	47
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1018 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	43	51

Congressional District: New Hampshire 1
Incumbent: Jeb Bradley-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Carol Shea-Porter (D)	Jeb Bradley (R)*
Research 2000	300 LV	6	9/13-14/06	31	56
University of New Hampshire	261 LV	6.1	7/21-31/06	24	58

Congressional District: New Hampshire 2
Incumbent: Charlie Bass-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Paul Hodes (D)	Charlie Bass (R)*
University of New Hampshire	220 LV	6.2	9/15-24/06	36	46
Research 2000	300 LV	6	9/13-14/06	30	55
Anzalone Liszt Research (D)	602 LV	4	8/14-20/06	42	43
University of New Hampshire	249 LV	6.2	7/21-31/06	25	53

Congressional District: New Jersey 7
Incumbent: Mike Ferguson-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Linda Stender (D)	Mike Ferguson (R)*
Tarrance Group (R)	300 LV	5.8	10/10-11/06	33	48
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1022 LV	3.10	10/8-10/06	46	48

Congressional District: New Mexico 1
Incumbent: Heather Wilson-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Patricia Madrid (D)	Heather Wilson (R)*
Survey USA	470 LV	4.6	10/13-15/06	53	45
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	986 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	52	44
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	50	40