The Catharsis Theory of 2006.

A mostly political Weblog.
Oct. 31 2006 3:14 AM

Hot New House Polls

Plus--That anti-Ford ad, reconsidered.

(Continued from Page 8)

Majority Leader Boehner boasts to fellow House Republicans  that the Secure Fence Act is "set to be signed by President Bush." [Is there a paranoid, Clintonian reading of that one?--ed.  Yes, but I'll spare you.] 5:24 P.M.

Is this why Rove is smiling? Do the Dems have to gain 15 House seats--or 18 seats? Or 20 seats? Influence Peddler identifies at least two possible Dem-to-GOP party-switchers should Pelosi's team fail to win "by a margin of more than a seat or two." ... Update: Reader C.S. points out another possibility--that some potential party-switchers might be anti-Pelosi rather than anti-Dem, forcing the Dems (in a close race for control) to substitute a more conservative candidate for Speaker. 5:14 P.M.

21  Works in Blackjack: That Stan Greenberg/Glen Bolger poll trumpeted on NPR--the one showing that the Dems "hold a growing margin in the battle for control of the U.S. House"--claims to have

surveyed 1,000 likely voters in 48 of the most competitive congressional districts ...

According to my calculator, that works out to fewer than 21 voters per district. Not impressive! ... It's certainly no Majority Watch, which polls 1,000 voters in each contested district, and which shows  ... that the Dems hold a growing margin in the battle for control of the U.S. House. ...

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Update--63 Hot Races 63: Even better, go to Slate's renovated House "Election Scorecard," which has overcome its drab generic origins and become a one-stop source of poll results on individual House races. It includes Majority Watch's polls of 49 contested districts, plus other polls of those districts, plus other polls of a dozen contested districts Majority Watch doesn't cover. What it lacks is a handy overall scoreboard. For that you still have to go to the  Majority Watch page. ...  3:30 P.M. link

kf continues to leave a  swath of destruction. 3:22 P.M.

Mond ay, October 16, 2006

When having it one way just isn't enough: Hillary Clinton takes Charles Peters' advice--that to win a Democrat has to make clear the he or she supports torture if necessary in the "rare" case of an "imminent threat to millions of Americans"--and gets hammered by McCain aide John Weaver for trying "to have it both ways." But of course McCain wants to have it both ways too. He also approves torture in the "ticking time bomb" situation--he just doesn't want to write the exception into the law, arguing instead for a clear standard that "might be violated in extraordinary circumstances." Tediously fastidious legalism or forthright hypocrisy? I'd say it's a close question! ... P.S.: What is it with McCain and "extraordinary circumstances"? ....10:42 P.M.

Rove Coalition Crumbles! From HuffPo:

TODAY IN SLATE

Medical Examiner

The Most Terrifying Thing About Ebola 

The disease threatens humanity by preying on humanity.

I Bought the Huge iPhone. I’m Already Thinking of Returning It.

Scotland Is Just the Beginning. Expect More Political Earthquakes in Europe.

Students Aren’t Going to College Football Games as Much Anymore

And schools are getting worried.

Two Damn Good, Very Different Movies About Soldiers Returning From War

The XX Factor

Lifetime Didn’t Think the Steubenville Rape Case Was Dramatic Enough

So they added a little self-immolation.

Politics

Blacks Don’t Have a Corporal Punishment Problem

Americans do. But when blacks exhibit the same behaviors as others, it becomes part of a greater black pathology. 

Why a Sketch of Chelsea Manning Is Stirring Up Controversy

How Worried Should Poland, the Baltic States, and Georgia Be About a Russian Invasion?

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