Who will win the most hotly contested races for governor? The numbers below tell the story based on averages of the most recent polls in each state. The "momentum shift" arrow for each race indicates statistically meaningful trends in recent polls. How did we get these numbers?

Governors' Race Summary for Nov. 6:
Much has changed since our last governors' update two weeks ago. The two races that had been the closest—in Iowa and Oregon—now show the Democratic candidates leading by statistically meaningful margins. And two races that had looked like potential blowouts are now too close to call.

In Alaska, Democrat Tony Knowles has narrowed the lead of Republican Sarah Palin to three points (44.5 percent to 41.5 percent), just close enough to rate tossup status. A month ago, Palin had a 10-point lead on our last-five-poll average.

And in Maryland (not listed below), Democratic challenger Martin O'Malley has seen his lead over Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich on our last-five-poll average fall from eight points three weeks ago to just 1.8 points today (47.8 percent to 46 percent). The last three polls show O'Malley either leading by a single point (SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports) or tied (Mason-Dixon).

Click  here  for an archive of Governor Race Summaries.

Key:

.