Election ScorecardWhere the midterm elections stand today.
Updated Monday, Nov. 6, 2006, at 6:58 PM ET |  |  |
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StumbleUponHouse Race Summary Nov. 6:
So, where does the race for the U.S. House stand on the eve of the election? While we have a huge collection of House race polls, and while Democrats certainly seem on the verge of regaining control of the House, we see two reasons why these poll results still add up to considerable uncertainty. First, the outcome remains in doubt in 25 to 40 districts (depending on which polls you trust), virtually all of which are currently held by Republicans. Second, polls are always a snapshot of opinion, but in this case, the recent poll averages we use to classify races represent something of a "time lapse" snapshot, capturing a slow-motion picture of the races over the course of October. If Republicans have made significant gains in the last week, the picture may be distorted.
Let's review where things stand, using the same formula as in last week's update. Once again, the math is easier given one important finding: Not a single candidate in a district now held by a Democrat is currently trailing, regardless of the combination of polls examined. So, the text and the table that follow focus on potential Democratic pickups.
- Nine seats currently held by Republicans show a Democrat leading by a statistically meaningful margin regardless of what combination of polls we look at: Arizona-8, Colorado-7, Indiana-2, Indiana-8, North Carolina-11, New Mexico-1, Ohio-18, and Pennsylvania-10. Today we add one more: Iowa-1, where a new Des Moines Register poll shows Democrat Bruce Braley leading Republican Mike Whelen by 21 points (56 percent to 35 percent).
- One seat deserves its own category: The one and only poll in the Texas-22 district formerly represented by Rep. Tom Delay shows Democrat Nick Lampson leading. However, a complicated ballot (Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs is a write-in candidate) makes this result tenuous.
- Eight more Republican seats look to be in statistically meaningful jeopardy, but only when we count the automated Majority Watch surveys (either because those are the only surveys available or because they tip the balance, making the Democrat's lead statistically meaningful): Florida-16, New Hampshire-2, New York-24, New York-25, New York-29, Ohio-15, Pennsylvania-6, and Pennsylvania-7.
- Three more Democrats show significant leads if we include the internal surveys released by partisan pollsters: Florida-13, Nebraska-3, and Ohio-1.
To sum up: If you trust the automated Majority Watch surveys and assume a pickup in Texas-22, then Democrats are leading in 18 races, enough to win a majority. If you trust all polls (including those released by partisans on both sides), then they currently lead in enough districts to pick up 21 seats. And they are not currently trailing in any.
But even more important: Polls have been conducted in October in another 29 seats where the averages indicate a statistical tossup. Only two of these seats are currently represented by Democrats. How well the Democrats ultimately do depends on how many of these still-too-close-to-call races they ultimately win. If they split evenly, then Democrats are looking at a gain of between 29 and 34 seats, depending on which polls you trust.
(Click here for an archive of House Race Summaries and here for an archive of House Race Summaries based on our previous generic House ballot.)
Data provided by Pollster.com
Congressional District: Arizona 1
Incumbent: Rick Renzi-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Ellen Simon (D) | Rick Renzi (R)* |
983 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 50 | 46 | |
403 LV | 5 | 9/15-17/06 | 32 | 45 |
Congressional District: Arizona 5
Incumbent: J.D. Hayworth-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Harry Mitchell (D) | J.D. Hayworth (R)* |
643 LV | 3.9 | 10/29-31/06 | 48 | 46 | |
509 LV | 4.4 | 10/13-15/06 | 45 | 48 | |
400 LV | 4.9 | (9/28/06) | 38 | 52 | |
590 LV | 4.1 | 9/15-17/06 | 40 | 52 |
Congressional District: Arizona 8
Open Race—R (Jim Kolbe)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Gabrielle Giffords (D) | Randy Graf (R) |
400 LV | 5 | 10/25-28/06 | 50 | 35 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 45 | 37 | |
402 RV | 4.3 | 9/20-23/06 | 52 | 34 | |
Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal (D) | 400 LV | 4.9 | 9/19-21/06 | 54 | 29 |
600 LV | 4 | 9/16-19/06 | 48.4 | 35.7 |
Congressional District: California 4
Incumbent: John Doolittle-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Charles Brown (D) | John Doolittle (R)* |
997 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 44 | 52 | |
400 LV | 4.9 | 8/29-31/06 | 39 | 41 |
Congressional District: California 11
Incumbent: Richard Pombo-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Jerry McNerny (D) | Richard Pompo (R)* |
Lake Research Partners (D) | 400LV | 4.4 | 9/28-30/06 | 40 | 41 |
413LV | 4.9 | 9/24-26/06 | 48 | 46 |
Congressional District: California 50
Incumbent: Brian Bilbray-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Francine Busby (D) | Brian Bilbray (R)* |
| SurveyUSA | 550 LV | 4.2 | 11/1-3/06 | 41 | 55 |
| SurveyUSA | 581 LV | 4.1 | 10/13-15/06 | 46 | 49 |
540 LV | 4.3 | 9/10-12/06 | 40 | 54 |
Congressional District: Colorado 3
Incumbent: John Salazar-D
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | John Salazar (D)* | Scott Tipton (R) |
| SurveyUSA | 611 LV | 4 | 10/27-29/06 | 57 | 38 |
| Anzalone-Liszt Research | 500 LV | 4.3 | 10/15-17/06 | 60 | 32 |
Congressional District: Colorado 4
Incumbent: Marilyn Musgrave-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Angie Paccione (D) | Marilyn Musgrave (R)* |
400 LV | 5 | 10/3-7/06 | 36 | 46 | |
400 LV | 5 | 9/26-27/06 | 36 | 43 | |
400 LV | 4.9 | 9/24-26/06 | 42 | 42 | |
424LV | 4.9 | 9/18-20/06 | 42 | 46 |
Congressional District: Colorado 5
Open Race—R (Joel Hefley)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Jay Fawcett (D) | Doug Lamborn (R) |
SurveyUSA | 596 LV | 4.2 | 11/1-3/06 | 42 | 51 |
Mason-Dixon | 543 LV | 5 | 10/24-27/06 | 40 | 47 |
Basswood Research (R) | 300 LV | 5.66 | 10/10/06 | 32 | 49 |
400 LV | 5 | 10/3-7/06 | 37 | 37 |
Congressional District: Colorado 7
Open Race—R (Bob Beauprez)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Ed Perlmutter (D) | Rick O'Donnell (R) |
589 LV | 4.1 | 10/29-31/06 | 54 | 38 | |
991 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 47 | 47 | |
400 LV | 5 | 10/3-7/06 | 45 | 39 | |
| Zogby | 500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 45 | 34 |
| SurveyUSA | 482 LV | 4.5 | 9/21-25/06 | 54 | 37 |
1014 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 48 | 46 | |
535 LV | 4.3 | 8/18-20/06 | 45 | 45 |
Congressional District: Connecticut 2
Incumbent: Rob Simmons-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | John Courtney (D) | Rob Simmons (R)* |
600 LV | 4 | 10/28-30/06 | 48 | 47 | |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 400 LV | 4.9 | 10/22-23/06 | 43 | 50 |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 41 | 44 | |
400 LV | 5 | 9/24-25/06 | 36 | 50 | |
400 LV | 5 | 8/28-30/06 | 41 | 40 | |
1010 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 51 | 45 |
Congressional District: Connecticut 4
Incumbent: Christopher Shays-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Diane Farrell (D) | Christopher Shays (R)* |
| Research 2000 | 600 RV | 4 | 10/26-28/06 | 47 | 43 |
| Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal | 400 RV | 4.9 | 10/10-12/06 | 44 | 41 |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 46 | 46 | |
753 RV | 3 | 9/25-10/1/06 | 41 | 41 | |
1011 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 42 | 42 |
Congressional District: Connecticut 5
Incumbent: Nancy Johnson-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Chris Murphy (D) | Nancy Johnson (R)* |
| Research 2000 | 600 LV | 4 | 10/27-29/06 | 46 | 43 |
| University of Connecticut | 762 LV | 3.6 | 10/24-28/06 | 46 | 42 |
| Grove Insight | 400 RV | 5 | 10/12/06 | 45 | 40 |
996 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 46 | 52 | |
400 LV | 4.9 | 10/1-2/06 | 42 | 52 | |
500 RV | 4.4 | 9/25-27/06 | 42 | 42 | |
American Viewpoint (R) | 400 LV | 4.9 | 9/5-6/06 | 36 | 50 |
650 LV | 4 | 8/13-15/06 | 44 | 49 |
Congressional District: Florida 9
Incumbent: Gus Bilirakis-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Phyllis Busansky (D) | Gus Bilirakis (R)* |
568 LV | 4.2 | 11/1-3/06 | 41 | 53 |
Congressional District: Florida 13
Open Race—R (Katherine Harris)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Christine Jennings (D) | Vern Buchanan (R) |
1024 LV | 3.07 | 10/8-10/06 | 47 | 44 | |
400 RV | 4.9 | 10/3-4/06 | 50 | 38 | |
500 RV | 4.4 | 9/8-12/06 | 46 | 38 |
Congressional District: Florida 16
Open Race—R (Mark Foley**)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Tim Mahoney (D) | Mark Foley (R)** |
1001 LV | 3.09 | 10/1/06 | 50 | 43 | |
400 LV | 4.9 | 9/14/06 | 48 | 35 |
**Mark Foley's name will appear on the ballot despite his resignation from Congress. Votes cast for Foley will count toward Joe Negron.
Congressional District: Florida 22
Incumbent: Clay Shaw-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Ron Klein (D) | Clay Shaw (R)* |
401 LV | 5 | 10/31-11/2/06 | 49.2 | 39.6 | |
600 LV | 4 | 10/16-18/06 | 43 | 48 | |
1022 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 44 | 52 |
Congressional District: Georgia 8
Incumbent: Jim Marshall-D
Polling data that tests a contest between incumbent Jim Marshall (D) and Mac Collins (R) is currently unavailable.
Congressional District: Georgia 12
Incumbent: John Barrow-D
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | John Barrow (D)* | Max Burns (R) |
310 LV | 6 | 10/26/06 | 42 | 39 |
Congressional District: Idaho 1
Open Race—R (Butch Otter)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Larry Grant (D) | Bill Sali (R) |
LV | 5.7 | 10/25-11/1/06 | 38 | 34 | |
LV | 6 | 10/23-25/06 | 37 | 39 | |
998 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 43 | 49 |
Congressional District: Illinois 6
Open Race—R (Henry Hyde)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Tammy Duckworth (D) | Peter Roskam (R) |
500 LV | 4 | 10/19-24/06 | 42 | 46 | |
600 LV | 4 | 10/14-18/06 | 39 | 43 | |
997 LV | 3.07 | 10/8-10/06 | 47 | 47 | |
409 RV | 5 | 10/8-9/06 | 51 | 46 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 43 | 38 | |
Goodwin Simon (D) | 400 LV | 5 | 9/18-20/06 | 41 | 41 |
1069 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 47 | 46 |
Congressional District: Illinois 8
Incumbent: Melissa Bean-D
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Melissa Bean (D)* | David McSweeney (R) |
500 LV | 4 | 10/19-24/06 | 42 | 39 | |
600 LV | 4 | 10/14-18/06 | 50 | 31 | |
997 LV | 3.10 | 10/15-16/06 | 47 | 44 | |
Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal (D) | 600 LV | 4 | 10/11-12/06 | 49 | 33 |
400 LV | 5 | 9/13/06 | 47 | 28 | |
1006 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 48 | 45 |
Congressional District: Illinois 10
Incumbent: Mark Kirk-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Dan Seals (D) | Mark Kirk (R)* |
1004 LV | 3.09 | 10/15-16/06 | 44 | 46 | |
Mellman Group (D) | 400 LV | 4.9 | 10/10-11/06 | 32 | 49 |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) | 300 LV | 5.66 | 10/8-9/06 | 32 | 57 |
Congressional District: Illinois 14
Incumbent: Dennis Hastert-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | John Laesch (D) | Dennis Hastert (R)* |
1003 LV | 3.08 | 10/8-10/06 | 42 | 52 |
Congressional District: Illinois 19
Incumbent: John Shimkus-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Dan Stover (D) | John Shimkus (R)* |
1023 LV | 3.08 | 10/8-10/06 | 36 | 53 |
Congressional District: Indiana 2
Incumbent: Chris Chocola-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Joe Donnelly (D) | Chris Chocola (R)* |
400 LV | 5 | 10/30-31/06 | 50 | 47 | |
989 LV | 3.07 | 10/8-10/06 | 50 | 46 | |
300 LV | 5.65 | 10/9/06 | 44.7 | 44.0 | |
400 LV | 4.6 | 10/4-5/06 | 52 | 36 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 49 | 39 | |
300 LV | -- | 9/17/06 | 41 | 46 | |
400 LV | 5 | 9/15-17/06 | 50 | 42 | |
1003 LV | 3.1 | 9/8-10/06 | 52 | 40 |
Congressional District: Indiana 3
Incumbent: Mark Souder-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Tom Hayhurst (D) | Mark Souder (R)* |
| Research 2000 | 400 LV | 5 | 10/24-26/06 | 40 | 56 |
Congressional District: Indiana 8
Incumbent: John Hostettler-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Brad Ellsworth (D) | John Hostettler (R)* |
| Indiana State University | 626 LV | 3.9 | 10/5-12/06 | 54.5 | 32.1 |
603 RV | 4 | 9/6-21/06 | 47 | 32 | |
1031 LV | 3.1 | 9/8-10/06 | 51 | 45 | |
400 LV | 5 | 9/5-8/06 | 44 | 40 |
Congressional District: Indiana 9
Incumbent: Mike Sodrel-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Baron Hill (D) | Mike Sodrel (R)* |
512 LV | 4.4 | 10/6-8/06 | 48 | 46 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 46 | 38 | |
1017 LV | 3.1 | 9/8-10/06 | 53 | 42 |
Congressional District: Iowa 1
Open Race—R (Jim Nussle)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Bruce Braley (D) | Mike Whalen (R) |
515 LV | 4.3 | 10/31-11/3/06 | 56 | 35 | |
400 RV | 4.9 | 10/5-8/06 | 48 | 37 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 34 | 47 | |
439 LV | 4.7 | 9/10-13/06 | 44 | 37 |
Congressional District: Iowa 2
Incumbent: Jim Leach-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | David Loebsack (D) | Jim Leach (R) |
1006 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 48 | 47 |
Congressional District: Iowa 3
Incumbent: Leonard Boswell-D
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Leonard Boswell (D) | Jeff Lamberti (R)* |
400 LV | 5 | 9/11-12/06 | 52 | 41 | |
989 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 54 | 43 |
Congressional District: Kentucky 2
Incumbent: Ron Lewis-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Mike Weaver (D) | Ron Lewis (R)* |
450 RV | 4.6 | 10/29-31/06 | 35 | 55 |
Congressional District: Kentucky 3
Incumbent: Anne Northup-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | John Yarmuth (D) | Anne Northup (R) |
Louisville Courier-Journal | 669 LV | 3.8 | 10/23-25/06 | 42 | 48 |
996 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 48 | 48 | |
529 LV | 4.3 | 9/26-28/06 | 44 | 50 |
Congressional District: Kentucky 4
Incumbent: Geoff Davis-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Ken Lucas (D) | Geoff Davis (R)* |
1000 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 46 | 49 | |
459 LV | 4.7 | 10/7-9/06 | 44 | 47 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 36 | 42 | |
427 LV | 4.8 | 9/16-18/06 | 48 | 44 | |
963 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 46 | 49 | |
656 LV | 3.9 | 8/7-9/06 | 44 | 46 |
Congressional District: Minnesota 1
Incumbent: Gil Gutknecht-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Tim Walz (D) | Gil Gutknecht (R)* |
1024 LV | 3.08 | 10/8-10/06 | 47 | 48 |
Congressional District: Minnesota 2
Incumbent: John Kline-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Coleen Rowley (DFL) | John Kline (R)* |
519 LV | 4.4 | 10/13-15/06 | 42 | 50 | |
520 LV | 4.4 | 9/24-26/06 | 35 | 55 |
Congressional District: Minnesota 6
Incumbent: Mark Kennedy-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Patty Wetterling (DFL) | Michelle Bachman (R) |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 506 LV | 4.5 | 10/6-12/06 | 48 | 40 |
995 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 50 | 45 | |
669 LV | 3.9 | 10/6-8/06 | 44 | 47 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 43 | 46 | |
641 LV | 3.9 | 9/15-17/06 | 41 | 50 |
Congressional District: Nebraska 3
Open Race (Tom Osborne-R)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Scott Kleeb (D) | Adrian Smith (R) |
Penn Schoen & Berland (D) | 404 LV | 4.9 | 10/29/06 | 46 | 40 |
Congressional District: Nevada 2
Open Race (Jim Gibbons-R)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Jill Derby (D) | Dean Heller (R) |
200 RV | 6.9 | 10/23-25/06 | 40 | 48 |
Congressional District: Nevada 3
Incumbent: Jon Porter-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Tessa Hafen (D) | Jon Porter (R)* |
400 RV | 5 | 9/19-21/06 | 37 | 47 | |
1018 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 43 | 51 |
Congressional District: New Hampshire 1
Incumbent: Jeb Bradley-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Carol Shea-Porter (D) | Jeb Bradley (R)* |
300 LV | -- | 11/1-2/06 | 40 | 48 | |
340 LV | 5.2 | 10/29-11/1/06 | 42 | 47 | |
200 RV | -- | 10/6-8/06 | 37 | 49 | |
300 LV | 6 | 9/13-14/06 | 31 | 56 |
Congressional District: New Hampshire 2
Incumbent: Charlie Bass-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Paul Hodes (D) | Charlie Bass (R)* |
300 LV | -- | 11/1-2/06 | 46 | 47 | |
320 LV | 5.4 | 10/29-11/1/06 | 45 | 37 | |
619 RV | 4 | 10/30-31/06 | 44 | 47 | |
200 RV | -- | 10/6-8/06 | 48 | 39 | |
220 LV | 6.2 | 9/15-24/06 | 36 | 46 | |
400 LV | 5 | 9/20/06 | 41 | 41 | |
300 LV | 6 | 9/13-14/06 | 30 | 55 |
Congressional District: New Jersey 7
Incumbent: Mike Ferguson-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Linda Stender (D) | Mike Ferguson (R)* |
Tarrance Group (R) | 300 LV | 5.8 | 10/10-11/06 | 33 | 48 |
1022 LV | 3.10 | 10/8-10/06 | 46 | 48 |
Congressional District: New Mexico 1
Incumbent: Heather Wilson-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Patricia Madrid (D) | Heather Wilson (R)* |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 450 LV | 4.62 | 10/31-11/2/06 | 46 | 48 |
Polling & Research | 503 LV | 4.4 | 11/1-2/06 | 49 | 45 |
Survey USA | 470 LV | 4.6 | 10/13-15/06 | 53 | 45 |
986 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 52 | 44 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 50 | 40 | |
400 LV | 5 | 9/25-28/06 | 44 | 44 | |
503 LV | 4.5 | 9/18-20/06 | 46 | 51 |
Congressional District: New York 3
Incumbent: Peter King-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Dave Mejias (D) | Peter King (R) |
984 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 46 | 48 |
Congressional District: New York 19
Incumbent: Sue Kelly-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | John Hall (D) | Sue Kelly (R)* |
600 RV | 4 | 9/15/06 | 44 | 49 |
Congressional District: New York 20
Incumbent: John Sweeney-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Kirsten Gillibrand (D) | John Sweeney (R)* |
| Siena College | 628 LV | 3.9 | 11/1-2/06 | 46 | 43 |
| Siena College | 630 RV | 3.9 | 10/16-17/06 | 39 | 53 |
| Global Insight | 400 RV | 4.9 | 10/13/06 | 41 | 42 |
410 LV | 3.9 | 8/29-31/06 | 39 | 47 | |
628 LV | 3.9 | 8/21-23/06 | 34 | 53 |
Congressional District: New York 24
Open Race—R (Sherwood Boehlert)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Mike Arcuri (D) | Ray Meier (R) |
1029 LV | 3.07 | 10/8-10/06 | 53 | 42 |
Congressional District: New York 25
Incumbent: James T. Walsh-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Dan Maffei (D) | James T. Walsh (R)* |
400 LV | 4.9 | 10/25-26/06 | 42 | 44 |
Congressional District: New York 26
Incumbent: Tom Reynolds-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Jack Davis (D) | Tom Reynolds (R)* |
470 LV | 4.6 | 11/1-3/06 | 46 | 50 | |
1056 LV | 3.07 | 10/8-10/06 | 56 | 40 | |
402 LV | 5 | 10/4-5/06 | 48 | 33 | |
522 LV | 4.4 | 10/3-4/06 | 50 | 42 | |
482 LV | 4.6 | 10/2-4/06 | 50 | 45 | |
491 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-27/06 | 43 | 45 |
Congressional District: New York 29
Incumbent: Randy Kuhl-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Eric Massa (D) | Randy Kuhl (R)* |
Cooper & Secrest (D) | 503 LV | 4.4 | 9/19-21/06 | 39 | 43 |
Congressional District: North Carolina 8
Incumbent: Robin Hayes-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Larry Kissell (D) | Robin Hayes (R)* |
1029 LV | 3.08 | 10/8-10/06 | 51 | 44 |
Congressional District: North Carolina 11
Incumbent: Charles Taylor-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Heath Shuler (D) | Charles Taylor (R)* |
834 LV | 3.3 | 11/1/06 | 52 | 43 | |
979 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 51 | 43 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 51 | 40 | |
1021 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 50 | 47 | |
731 LV | 3.6 | 8/8-13/06 | 48 | 43 |
Congressional District: Ohio 1
Incumbent: Steve Chabot-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | John Cranley (D) | Steve Chabot (R)* |
500 LV | 4.4 | 7/17-8/1/06 | 45 | 45 |
Congressional District: Ohio 2
Incumbent: Jean Schmidt-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Victoria Wulsin (D) | Jean Schmidt (R)* |
618 LV | 4 | 10/29-31/06 | 48 | 45 | |
1003 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 48 | 45 | |
497 LV | 4.5 | 9/17-19/06 | 42 | 45 |
Congressional District: Ohio 6
Open Race—D (Ted Strickland)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Charlie Wilson (D) | Chuck Blasdel (R) |
982 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 56 | 40 | |
516 LV | 4.4 | 9/26-28/06 | 54 | 41 |
Congressional District: Ohio 15
Incumbent: Deborah Pryce-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Mary Jo Kilroy (D) | Deborah Pryce (R)* |
1015 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 53 | 41 | |
| Research 2000 | 220LV | 6.2 | 9/15-26/06 | 33 | 46 |
| Anzalone Liszt Research | 220LV | 6.2 | 9/15-26/06 | 37 | 42 |
Congressional District: Ohio 18
Open Race—R (Bob Ney)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Zack Space (D) | Joy Padgett (R) |
400 RV | 5 | 10/10-11/06 | 48 | 41 | |
987 LV | 3.10 | 10/8-10/06 | 51 | 42 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 45 | 36 |
Congressional District: Oklahoma 5
Open Race—R (Ernest Istook)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | David Hunter (D) | Mary Fallin (R) |
430 LV | 4.7 | 10/29-31/06 | 37 | 59 | |
435 LV | 4.7 | 10/8-10/06 | 33 | 62 |
Congressional District: Pennsylvania 6
Incumbent: Jim Gerlach-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Lois Murphy (D) | Jim Gerlach (R)* |
Zogby | 500 LV | 4.5 | 10/24-29/06 | 49 | 43.5 |
RT Strategies/ | 1006 LV | 3.08 | 10/24-26/06 | 51 | 46 |
1023 LV | 3.07 | 10/8-10/06 | 52 | 46 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 43 | 41 | |
349 LV | 5.2 | 9/20-25/06 | 41 | 44 | |
400 LV | 4.9 | 9/13-14/06 | 36 | 47 | |
1020 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 50 | 45 |
Congressional District: Pennsylvania 7
Incumbent: Curt Weldon-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Joe Sestak (D) | Curt Weldon (R)* |
1017 LV | 3.08 | 10/8-10/06 | 52 | 44 | |
363 LV | 5.2 | 9/22-9/27/06 | 45 | 44 | |
400 LV | 4.9 | 9/12-13/06 | 33 | 52 |
Congressional District: Pennsylvania 8
Incumbent: Mike Fitzpatrick-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Patrick Murphy (D) | Mike Fitzpatrick (R)* |
| Global Strategies Group (D) | 408 LV | 4.9 | 10/29-30/06 | 46 | 41 |
| Muhlenberg College | 421 LV | 4.8 | 10/25-27/06 | 42 | 47 |
| RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics | 994 LV | 3.1 | 10/24-26/06 | 50 | 47 |
| Grove Insight | 400 RV | 4.9 | 10/15/06 | 44 | 40 |
Congressional District: Pennsylvania 10
Incumbent: Don Sherwood-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Chris Carney (D) | Don Sherwood (R)* |
643 LV | 3.9 | 10/22-26/06 | 47 | 38 | |
400 RV | 4.9 | 10/9-11/06 | 52 | 37 | |
400 RV | 4.9 | 10/8-9/06 | 51 | 37 | |
804 LV | 3.5 | 9/24-28/06 | 46.7 | 38.2 | |
1008 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 50 | 43 |
Congressional District: South Carolina 5
Incumbent: John Spratt-D
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | John Spratt (D)* | Ralph Norman (R) |
530 LV | 4.3 | 10/29-31/06 | 58 | 39 |
Congressional District: South Dakota AL
Incumbent: Stephanie Herseth-D
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Stephanie Herseth (D)* | Bruce Whalen (R) |
800 RV | 3.5 | 10/24-26/06 | 66 | 26 |
Congressional District: Texas 17
Incumbent: Chet Edwards-D
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Chet Edwards (D)* | Van Taylor (R) |
1008 LV | 3.10 | 10/8-10/06 | 55 | 38 | |
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D) | 400 LV | 4.9 | 10/9-10/06 | 54 | 33 |
Congressional District: Texas 22
Open Race—R (Tom Delay**)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Nick Lampson (D) | Shelly Sekula-Gibbs (R)** |
504 LV | 3.10 | 10/8-10/06 | 36 | 28 |
**Tom Delay's name will appear on the ballot despite his resignation from Congress. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs is a write-in candidate who has been endorsed by the Republican Party.
Congressional District: Vermont At-Large
Open Race—I (Bernie Sanders)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Peter Welch (D) | Martha Rainville (R)* |
401 RV | 5 | 10/8-9/06 | 52 | 41 | |
600 LV | 4 | 9/13-14/06 | 48 | 45 |
Congressional District: Virginia 2
Incumbent: Thelma Drake-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Phil Kellam (D) | Thelma Drake (R)* |
500 LV | 4.5 | 10/24-29/06 | 43 | 51 | |
RT Strategies/ | 989 LV | 3.11 | 10/24-26/06 | 50 | 45 |
982 LV | 3.10 | 10/8-10/06 | 46 | 48 | |
500 LV | 4.5 | 9/25-10/2/06 | 46 | 42 | |
1021 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 51 | 43 | |
300 LV | 5.6 | 8/28-29/06 | 41.3 | 48.3 |
Congressional District: Virginia 5
Incumbent: Virgil Goode-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Al Weed (D) | Virgil Goode (R)* |
502 LV | 4.4 | 10/8-10/06 | 40 | 56 |
Congressional District: Virginia 10
Incumbent: Frank Wolf-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Judy Feder (D) | Frank Wolf (R)* |
1004 LV | 3.07 | 10/8-10/06 | 42 | 47 |
Congressional District: Washington 5
Incumbent: Cathy McMorris-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Peter Goldmark (D) | Cathy McMorris (R)* |
RT Strategies/ | 991 LV | 3.07 | 10/24-26/06 | 46 | 51 |
Congressional District: Washington 8
Incumbent: Dave Reichert-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Darcy Burner (D) | Dave Reichert (R)* |
498 LV | 4.1 | 10/28-30/06 | 45 | 51 | |
RT Strategies/ | 1004 LV | 3.09 | 10/24-26/06 | 49 | 47 |
1015 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 45 | 48 | |
536 LV | 4.3 | 9/24-26/06 | 48 | 50 | |
1051 LV | 3.1 | 8/27-29/06 | 49 | 46 | |
609 RV | 4 | 8/22-23/06 | 41 | 54 |
Congressional District: West Virginia 1
Incumbent: Alan Mollohan-D
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Alan Mollohan (D)* | Chris Wakim (R) |
1003 LV | 3.09 | 8/27-29/06 | 52 | 42 |
Congressional District: Wisconsin 8
Open Race—R (Mark Green)
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Steve Kagen (D) | John Gard (R)* |
RT Strategies/ | 984 LV | 3.12 | 10/24-26/06 | 51 | 45 |
400 LV | 5 | 10/17-25/06 | 43 | 43 | |
983 LV | 3.09 | 10/8-10/06 | 48 | 46 |
Congressional District: Wyoming At-Large
Incumbent: Barbara Cubin-R
| Pollster/Source | NPop | MoE | Dates | Gary Trauner (D) | Barbara Cubin (R)* |
539 LV | 4 | 10/18-25/06 | 40 | 44 | |
625 RV | 4 | 10/9-12/06 | 37 | 44 |
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