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  Where the midterm elections stand today.
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  posted Nov. 6, 2006
• Election Scorecard
  Where the midterm elections stand today.
  Mark Blumenthal
  posted Nov. 6, 2006
• Election Scorecard
  Where the midterm elections stand today.
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  posted Oct. 31, 2006
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  Where the midterm elections stand today.
  Mark Blumenthal
  posted Oct. 23, 2006
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Election ScorecardWhere the midterm elections stand today.

House Race Summary Nov. 6:
So, where does the race for the U.S. House stand on the eve of the election? While we have a huge collection of House race polls, and while Democrats certainly seem on the verge of regaining control of the House, we see two reasons why these poll results still add up to considerable uncertainty. First, the outcome remains in doubt in 25 to 40 districts (depending on which polls you trust), virtually all of which are currently held by Republicans. Second, polls are always a snapshot of opinion, but in this case, the recent poll averages we use to classify races represent something of a "time lapse" snapshot, capturing a slow-motion picture of the races over the course of October. If Republicans have made significant gains in the last week, the picture may be distorted.

Let's review where things stand, using the same formula as in last week's update. Once again, the math is easier given one important finding: Not a single candidate in a district now held by a Democrat is currently trailing, regardless of the combination of polls examined. So, the text and the table that follow focus on potential Democratic pickups.

• Nine seats currently held by Republicans show a Democrat leading by a statistically meaningful margin regardless of what combination of polls we look at: Arizona-8, Colorado-7, Indiana-2, Indiana-8, North Carolina-11, New Mexico-1, Ohio-18, and Pennsylvania-10. Today we add one more: Iowa-1, where a new Des Moines Register poll shows Democrat Bruce Braley leading Republican Mike Whelen by 21 points (56 percent to 35 percent).
• One seat deserves its own category: The one and only poll in the Texas-22 district formerly represented by Rep. Tom Delay shows Democrat Nick Lampson leading. However, a complicated ballot (Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs is a write-in candidate) makes this result tenuous.
• Eight more Republican seats look to be in statistically meaningful jeopardy, but only when we count the automated Majority Watch surveys (either because those are the only surveys available or because they tip the balance, making the Democrat's lead statistically meaningful): Florida-16, New Hampshire-2, New York-24, New York-25, New York-29, Ohio-15, Pennsylvania-6, and Pennsylvania-7.
• Three more Democrats show significant leads if we include the internal surveys released by partisan pollsters: Florida-13, Nebraska-3, and Ohio-1.

To sum up: If you trust the automated Majority Watch surveys and assume a pickup in Texas-22, then Democrats are leading in 18 races, enough to win a majority. If you trust all polls (including those released by partisans on both sides), then they currently lead in enough districts to pick up 21 seats. And they are not currently trailing in any.

But even more important: Polls have been conducted in October in another 29 seats where the averages indicate a statistical tossup. Only two of these seats are currently represented by Democrats. How well the Democrats ultimately do depends on how many of these still-too-close-to-call races they ultimately win. If they split evenly, then Democrats are looking at a gain of between 29 and 34 seats, depending on which polls you trust.

(Click here for an archive of House Race Summaries and here for an archive of House Race Summaries based on our previous generic House ballot.)

Data provided by Pollster.com

Congressional District: Arizona 1
Incumbent: Rick Renzi-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ellen Simon (D)	Rick Renzi (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	983 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	50	46
Northern Arizona U	403 LV	5	9/15-17/06	32	45

Congressional District: Arizona 5
Incumbent: J.D. Hayworth-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Harry Mitchell (D)	J.D. Hayworth (R)*
SurveyUSA	643 LV	3.9	10/29-31/06	48	46
SurveyUSA	509 LV	4.4	10/13-15/06	45	48
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	4.9	(9/28/06)	38	52
SurveyUSA	590 LV	4.1	9/15-17/06	40	52

Congressional District: Arizona 8
Open Race—R (Jim Kolbe)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Gabrielle Giffords (D)	Randy Graf (R)
Wick Communications	400 LV	5	10/25-28/06	50	35
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	45	37
Wick Communications	402 RV	4.3	9/20-23/06	52	34
Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/19-21/06	54	29
Arizona Daily Star	600 LV	4	9/16-19/06	48.4	35.7

Congressional District: California 4
Incumbent: John Doolittle-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Charles Brown (D)	John Doolittle (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	997 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	44	52
Benenson Strategy Group (D)	400 LV	4.9	8/29-31/06	39	41

Congressional District: California 11
Incumbent: Richard Pombo-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jerry McNerny (D)	Richard Pompo (R)*
Lake Research Partners (D)	400LV	4.4	9/28-30/06	40	41
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	413LV	4.9	9/24-26/06	48	46

Congressional District: California 50
Incumbent: Brian Bilbray-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Francine Busby (D)	Brian Bilbray (R)*
SurveyUSA	550 LV	4.2	11/1-3/06	41	55
SurveyUSA	581 LV	4.1	10/13-15/06	46	49
SurveyUSA	540 LV	4.3	9/10-12/06	40	54

Congressional District: Colorado 3
Incumbent: John Salazar-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Salazar (D)*	Scott Tipton (R)
SurveyUSA	611 LV	4	10/27-29/06	57	38
Anzalone-Liszt Research	500 LV	4.3	10/15-17/06	60	32

Congressional District: Colorado 4
Incumbent: Marilyn Musgrave-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Angie Paccione (D)	Marilyn Musgrave (R)*
Mason-Dixon	400 LV	5	10/3-7/06	36	46
Conquest Communications (R)	400 LV	5	9/26-27/06	36	43
Strategic Services (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/24-26/06	42	42
SurveyUSA	424LV	4.9	9/18-20/06	42	46

Congressional District: Colorado 5
Open Race—R (Joel Hefley)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jay Fawcett (D)	Doug Lamborn (R)
SurveyUSA	596 LV	4.2	11/1-3/06	42	51
Mason-Dixon	543 LV	5	10/24-27/06	40	47
Basswood Research (R)	300 LV	5.66	10/10/06	32	49
Mason-Dixon	400 LV	5	10/3-7/06	37	37

Congressional District: Colorado 7
Open Race—R (Bob Beauprez)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ed Perlmutter (D)	Rick O'Donnell (R)
SurveyUSA	589 LV	4.1	10/29-31/06	54	38
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	991 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	47	47
Mason-Dixon	400 LV	5	10/3-7/06	45	39
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	45	34
SurveyUSA	482 LV	4.5	9/21-25/06	54	37
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1014 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	48	46
SurveyUSA	535 LV	4.3	8/18-20/06	45	45

Congressional District: Connecticut 2
Incumbent: Rob Simmons-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Courtney (D)	Rob Simmons (R)*
Research 2000	600 LV	4	10/28-30/06	48	47
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	4.9	10/22-23/06	43	50
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	41	44
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	400 LV	5	9/24-25/06	36	50
Grove Insight (D)	400 LV	5	8/28-30/06	41	40
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1010 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	51	45

Congressional District: Connecticut 4
Incumbent: Christopher Shays-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Diane Farrell (D)	Christopher Shays (R)*
Research 2000	600 RV	4	10/26-28/06	47	43
Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal	400 RV	4.9	10/10-12/06	44	41
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	46	46
University of Connecticut	753 RV	3	9/25-10/1/06	41	41
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1011 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	42	42

Congressional District: Connecticut 5
Incumbent: Nancy Johnson-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Chris Murphy (D)	Nancy Johnson (R)*
Research 2000	600 LV	4	10/27-29/06	46	43
University of Connecticut	762 LV	3.6	10/24-28/06	46	42
Grove Insight	400 RV	5	10/12/06	45	40
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	996 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	46	52
American Viewpoint (R)	400 LV	4.9	10/1-2/06	42	52
Westhill Consulting (D)	500 RV	4.4	9/25-27/06	42	42
American Viewpoint (R)	400 LV	4.9	9/5-6/06	36	50
Democracy Corps (D)	650 LV	4	8/13-15/06	44	49

Congressional District: Florida 9
Incumbent: Gus Bilirakis-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Phyllis Busansky (D)	Gus Bilirakis (R)*
SurveyUSA	568 LV	4.2	11/1-3/06	41	53

Congressional District: Florida 13
Open Race—R (Katherine Harris)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Christine Jennings (D)	Vern Buchanan (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1024 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	47	44
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	400 RV	4.9	10/3-4/06	50	38
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	500 RV	4.4	9/8-12/06	46	38

Congressional District: Florida 16
Open Race—R (Mark Foley**)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tim Mahoney (D)	Mark Foley (R)**
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1001 LV	3.09	10/1/06	50	43
Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D)	400 LV	4.9	9/14/06	48	35

**Mark Foley's name will appear on the ballot despite his resignation from Congress. Votes cast for Foley will count toward Joe Negron.

Congressional District: Florida 22
Incumbent: Clay Shaw-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ron Klein (D)	Clay Shaw (R)*
Zogby	401 LV	5	10/31-11/2/06	49.2	39.6
Research 2000	600 LV	4	10/16-18/06	43	48
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1022 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	44	52

Congressional District: Georgia 8
Incumbent: Jim Marshall-D

Polling data that tests a contest between incumbent Jim Marshall (D) and Mac Collins (R) is currently unavailable.

Congressional District: Georgia 12
Incumbent: John Barrow-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Barrow (D)*	Max Burns (R)
Insider Advantage	310 LV	6	10/26/06	42	39

Congressional District: Idaho 1
Open Race—R (Butch Otter)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Larry Grant (D)	Bill Sali (R)
Greg Smith & Associates (D)	LV	5.7	10/25-11/1/06	38	34
Mason-Dixon	LV	6	10/23-25/06	37	39
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	998 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	43	49

Congressional District: Illinois 6
Open Race—R (Henry Hyde)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tammy Duckworth (D)	Peter Roskam (R)
Richard Day Research	500 LV	4	10/19-24/06	42	46
Market Shares Corp	600 LV	4	10/14-18/06	39	43
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	997 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	47	47
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	409 RV	5	10/8-9/06	51	46
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	43	38
Goodwin Simon (D)	400 LV	5	9/18-20/06	41	41
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1069 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	47	46

Congressional District: Illinois 8
Incumbent: Melissa Bean-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Melissa Bean (D)*	David McSweeney (R)
Richard Day Research	500 LV	4	10/19-24/06	42	39
Market Shares Corp	600 LV	4	10/14-18/06	50	31
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	997 LV	3.10	10/15-16/06	47	44
Bennett, Petts, & Blumenthal (D)	600 LV	4	10/11-12/06	49	33
DCCC (D)	400 LV	5	9/13/06	47	28
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1006 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	48	45

Congressional District: Illinois 10
Incumbent: Mark Kirk-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Dan Seals (D)	Mark Kirk (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1004 LV	3.09	10/15-16/06	44	46
Mellman Group (D)	400 LV	4.9	10/10-11/06	32	49
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	300 LV	5.66	10/8-9/06	32	57

Congressional District: Illinois 14
Incumbent: Dennis Hastert-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Laesch (D)	Dennis Hastert (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1003 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	42	52

Congressional District: Illinois 19
Incumbent: John Shimkus-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Dan Stover (D)	John Shimkus (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1023 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	36	53

Congressional District: Indiana 2
Incumbent: Chris Chocola-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Joe Donnelly (D)	Chris Chocola (R)*
Research 2000	400 LV	5	10/30-31/06	50	47
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	989 LV	3.07	10/8-10/06	50	46
Mercury Public Affairs (R)	300 LV	5.65	10/9/06	44.7	44.0
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	400 LV	4.6	10/4-5/06	52	36
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	49	39
Mercury Public Affairs (R)	300 LV	--	9/17/06	41	46
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/15-17/06	50	42
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1003 LV	3.1	9/8-10/06	52	40

Congressional District: Indiana 3
Incumbent: Mark Souder-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tom Hayhurst (D)	Mark Souder (R)*
Research 2000	400 LV	5	10/24-26/06	40	56

Congressional District: Indiana 8
Incumbent: John Hostettler-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Brad Ellsworth (D)	John Hostettler (R)*
Indiana State University	626 LV	3.9	10/5-12/06	54.5	32.1
Indiana State University	603 RV	4	9/6-21/06	47	32
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1031 LV	3.1	9/8-10/06	51	45
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/5-8/06	44	40

Congressional District: Indiana 9
Incumbent: Mike Sodrel-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Baron Hill (D)	Mike Sodrel (R)*
SurveyUSA	512 LV	4.4	10/6-8/06	48	46
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	46	38
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1017 LV	3.1	9/8-10/06	53	42

Congressional District: Iowa 1
Open Race—R (Jim Nussle)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Bruce Braley (D)	Mike Whalen (R)
Selzer & Company	515 LV	4.3	10/31-11/3/06	56	35
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D)	400 RV	4.9	10/5-8/06	48	37
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	34	47
Selzer & Co	439 LV	4.7	9/10-13/06	44	37

Congressional District: Iowa 2
Incumbent: Jim Leach-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	David Loebsack (D)	Jim Leach (R)
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1006 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	48	47

Congressional District: Iowa 3
Incumbent: Leonard Boswell-D

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Leonard Boswell (D)	Jeff Lamberti (R)*
Research 2000	400 LV	5	9/11-12/06	52	41
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	989 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	54	43

Congressional District: Kentucky 2
Incumbent: Ron Lewis-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Mike Weaver (D)	Ron Lewis (R)*
Voter-Consumer Research	450 RV	4.6	10/29-31/06	35	55

Congressional District: Kentucky 3
Incumbent: Anne Northup-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	John Yarmuth (D)	Anne Northup (R)
Louisville Courier-Journal	669 LV	3.8	10/23-25/06	42	48
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	996 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	48	48
SurveyUSA	529 LV	4.3	9/26-28/06	44	50

Congressional District: Kentucky 4
Incumbent: Geoff Davis-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Ken Lucas (D)	Geoff Davis (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1000 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	46	49
SurveyUSA	459 LV	4.7	10/7-9/06	44	47
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	36	42
SurveyUSA	427 LV	4.8	9/16-18/06	48	44
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	963 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	46	49
SurveyUSA	656 LV	3.9	8/7-9/06	44	46

Congressional District: Minnesota 1
Incumbent: Gil Gutknecht-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tim Walz (D)	Gil Gutknecht (R)*
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1024 LV	3.08	10/8-10/06	47	48

Congressional District: Minnesota 2
Incumbent: John Kline-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Coleen Rowley (DFL)	John Kline (R)*
SurveyUSA	519 LV	4.4	10/13-15/06	42	50
SurveyUSA	520 LV	4.4	9/24-26/06	35	55

Congressional District: Minnesota 6
Incumbent: Mark Kennedy-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Patty Wetterling (DFL)	Michelle Bachman (R)
Minneapolis Star Tribune	506 LV	4.5	10/6-12/06	48	40
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	995 LV	3.09	10/8-10/06	50	45
SurveyUSA	669 LV	3.9	10/6-8/06	44	47
Zogby	500 LV	4.5	9/25-10/2/06	43	46
SurveyUSA	641 LV	3.9	9/15-17/06	41	50

Congressional District: Nebraska 3
Open Race (Tom Osborne-R)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Scott Kleeb (D)	Adrian Smith (R)
Penn Schoen & Berland (D)	404 LV	4.9	10/29/06	46	40

Congressional District: Nevada 2
Open Race (Jim Gibbons-R)

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Jill Derby (D)	Dean Heller (R)
Research 2000	200 RV	6.9	10/23-25/06	40	48

Congressional District: Nevada 3
Incumbent: Jon Porter-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Tessa Hafen (D)	Jon Porter (R)*
Mason-Dixon	400 RV	5	9/19-21/06	37	47
RT Strategies/ Constituent Dynamics	1018 LV	3.1	8/27-29/06	43	51

Congressional District: New Hampshire 1
Incumbent: Jeb Bradley-R

Pollster/Source	NPop	MoE	Dates	Carol Shea-Porter (D)	Jeb Bradley (R)*
Research 2000	300 LV	--	11/1-2/06	40	48
University of New Hampshire	340 LV	5.2	10/29-11/1/06	42	47
Becker Institute, Inc.	200 RV	--	10/6-8/06	37	49
Research 2000	300 LV	6	9/13-14/06	31	56

Congressional District: New Hampshire 2
Incumbent: Charlie Bass-R

Pollster/Source

NPop

MoE

Dates

Paul Hodes (