Does McCain like Palin? I don't think we know. ... If he doesn't like her, and just picked her for tactical reasons, she might play only a minimal role in a McCain presidency. ... 7:15 P.M.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says.
Huh? It looks to me as if McCain can win enough electoral votes simply by winning all the toss-up states on the RCP map--which does not require him to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota. What am I missing? Does McCain know something about Ohio that the public polls don't show? Is it going the way of Michigan? If so, there's your lede! ... P.S.--Don't Unpanic, Dems! If Ohio is still in play, then I'm one of those who looks at the RCP electoral map and thinks, not "McCain's path to 270 ... is narrowing," but "jeez, Obama could still easily lose," even if the polls showing his non-trivial national lead are right. He's got to win one of seven decidedly iffy states (Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado, Missouri). You want to rely on Colorado? ... Update: Several readers would add Nevada to the list--if Obama wins Nevada but loses all the other RCP swing states it would produce a 269-269 tie. That would throw the election into the House of Representatives, where each state's delegation gets one vote. Dems appear to currently control a majority (28) of the state delegations. ... Update: Reuters runs through various possible post-tie scenarios, including the not-implausible McCain/Biden Double-Beltway outcome. But they leave out at least one scenario: the Epic Hillary Backstab, in which still-fuming Clintonite Dem Congresspersons throw their state delegations to McCain. ... 2:02 P.M. link
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Biden- Palin Debate: Before I get spun, 1) They both did fine--which is about the biggest surprise possible; 2) Seen without preexisting expectations, I would actually say Biden was a little better, because Palin was a little robotic while Biden seemed shockingly authentic. But of course there were heavy preexisting expectations. McCain's campaign not only successfully used the MSM's pro-Dem bias, jujitsu-style, to create the idea that Palin would be abysmal--all those leaks from debate prep sessions, about how badly they were going, etc.--but he also successfully made Palin the big issue: Would she even survive as a politician with a viable future, etc.? As a result, even though she pretty much failed to accomplish the traditional vice-presidential job of making voters worried about Barack Obama, she succeeded at what had become her main, selfish, task of making voters less worried about her. 3) In the debate, if it's close Palin won. It was close. In the overall campaign, if it's close, Obama won. It was close. ...
Update: 4) Palin sounded like she was campaigning in Iowa for the teachers' union vote when she talked about education. We need to spend more money. Pay teachers more. States need more "flexibility" in No Child Left Behind ("flexibility" to ignore it). I didn't hear an actual single conservative principle, or even neoliberal principle. Pathetic. 5) "He said 'Bosniaks.' Heh, heh." ["Bosniak" is a proper word--ed Unheh!] 6) Biden was still hamstrung on Iraq by his vote for the war. He didn't come up with a winning way out. It's Obama's fault for picking him; 7) Biden also seemed imprudently hyperbolic when it came to how there would be " absolutely no distinction from a constitutional standpoint or a legal standpoint between a same-sex and a heterosexual couple" in an Obama administration. Is Biden really worried about losing the pro-gay-rights vote? His vehemence was immediately undercut when he then opposed gay marriage. Isn't that, you know, a "distinction"? 8) Big loser, again, is Hillary. In two years Palin will be so much better she won't even be in the same league. ...