"Don't Tell Mama'--the hidden anti-Hillary vote.

A mostly political Weblog.
April 17 2007 3:08 PM

The 'Don't Tell Mama' Voters

Polls suggest a hidden anti-Hillary bloc.

(Continued from Page 11)

"I wouldn't be surprised if I wasn't walking around in Africa or South America doing something that was like mission work."

I'm not sure honorable people talk in public about how they might just be the type to do mission work in Africa. They either do it, or they don't. It's a boast of sorts, and it reinforced the sneaking suspicion that one of the main purposes of Dowd's interview was to make Matthew Dowd look good. After all, in terms of actually affecting the Bush policies Dowd decries, the interview's a bit late, no? ... 12:32 A.M. link

Sunday, April 1, 2007

Sullivan. Excitable! Sloppy.  Self-Righteous. April Fool's Fun!  ... [You sure the joke isn't on you?--ed I'm not sure.  Maybe Sullivan's only pretending to be gullibly taken in by an April Fool's joke as an April Fool's joke! Yeah, that's the ticket. ... P.S.: It's a good fallback position, anyway.] ... 11:15 P.M. link

He's expected to do better than expected: According to NPR, Rep. Tom Tancredo plans to announce for president Monday. ... 10:44 P.M.

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I don't like motorcycles, I don't like outfits that proudly use the word "confederate," and I'm not sure you are allowed to use the word "bitchin'" anymore--but this is a bitchin'-looking motorcycle. ... 2:42 A.M

"We Are Hiring at $9.50 per hour"--sign in the window at the In-N-Out burger restaurant in Westwood, CA.  That has to be more than they were paying a year ago. ... I'm not saying you can raise a family on that (it works out to a bit less than $20,000/year). I'm saying tight labor markets--produced by growth and maybe a boost in immigration enforcement--eventually raise wages at the bottom, and we are starting to see that. Burger chain jobs set the de facto minimum wage, no? ... Update/Correction: Several---actually more than several--alert readers have emailed to note that In-N-Out famously pays more than other burger chains, so it does not, in fact, set the de facto minimum wage. On the other hand, the $9.50 wage appears to have been instituted last fall, so it represents an increase.** Plus, they apparently feel the need to advertise for new workers, which suggests that even the $9.50 wage may soon not be enough.

More: Kevin Drum sneers that the fancy-looking chart of unspecified provenance on his blog

is, perhaps, more reliable data than a single sign in a burger joint in an upscale Los Angeles neighborhood, no?

Well, no. They're both data! Large indexes are obviously more comprehensive than cheap casual observation--though some, like the hourly wage data from BLS, are notoriously skewed. But large indexes are not timely. Assuming Drum's data (which seem to have come from the WSJ, which in turn cites only "Labor Department") came from this BLS survey, the most recent numbers are from the last quarter of 2006. Help wanted signs that appear in small business windows can tell you what's happening now. (I got my first clue that the brutal Reagan recession was over--this was 1983, when the papers were filled with dismal stats--when I was campaigning (for a Democrat) on a subway platform in New York, and ran into a contractor who said, "You think the economy is bad? My business has never been better.")

I'm not denying income inequality is rising--I wrote a book based on the reality that income inequality is rising--or that Bush-era prosperity, in particular, hasn't been as widely shared as prosperity in other eras. My suggestion is only that if you keep the economy going and stop new immigrant entrants from flooding in at the bottom, entry-level wages will eventually rise and people will start complaining (as they did in the late 1990s) about the "U-shaped" economy in which the rich and the poor were gaining faster than the middle.*** I also think that's a much better bet, when it comes to boosting low-end wages, than "card check" legislation.

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