Some conspiratorial speculation.

Mark Blumenthal cautions against reading too much  into that stunning Gallup poll showing GOP and Dem "generic" preferences dead even among "likely voters".  Gallup's screen for who's "likely" is apparently notoriously sensitive to temporary shifts in excitement--measuring more 'who would vote if the election were held today' as opposed to what we really want to know, which is 'whom would the people who are going to vote on November 7 vote for if the election were held today.' .... 8:15 P.M.

It's a Chait-Yglesias Vlogger Cage Match  on Iraq (specifically, on whether the war was bungled by Bush incompetence [Chait] or was a bad idea from the start no matter who was running it [Yglesias]). ... 10:53 A,M.

Senate Majority Leader Frist will bring the bill for a 700-mile border fence to the Senate floor for an "up or down vote."  That's the sort of non-"comprehensive" legislation the pro-"comprehensive"press (which is most of the press) has been assuring us will never pass. Let's see. ... Actually, as RCP's blog notes, the mainstream press had been assuring us that the whole topic of immigration reform was dead for this year. The paper to read to find out what was actually going on in Congress turns out to have been the Mooning Washington Times, not the cocooning New York Times. ... [Thanks to N.Z.B.] ... Update: AP story on possible Dem blocking tactic. ... WaPo says: "Congress Bustles With Busywork." Busywork? ... 2:00 A.M.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Angelenos and news-crits: Before you rush to agree with LAT columnist Tim Rutten's self-satisfiedly righteous denunciation of the evil, greedy absentee-owning Tribune Company: 1) Do you really think Dean Baquet couldn't put out a high-quality Los Angeles newspaper with a mere 800 editorial employees (instead of the current 940)? The Washington Post operates with about  800 editorial employees. It's pretty good! 2) If you are a reporter at the LAT, do you really want to work at a paper owned by Eli Broad, Ron Burkle, or David Geffen--three of the local billionaires you should be covering? They aren't known as people who like bad press. ... P.S.: The LAT has become a much better paper under Baquet--better than it ever was under the Chandlers--while it's cut back staff. Does that bolster the argument against cutting? ... 1:23 P.M. link

YouTube: Andrew Sullivan has decided to give out a Nancy Grace Award. Criteria (suggested by Sullivan's readers) include "a nauseating level of absolutistself-righteousness," an "unflappable self-assurance that [the nominee's] outrage represents the true moral high ground on any issue" despite a propensity to "flip flop"--and a habit of "excessive personal attacks." [Emphasis added]... You mean like righteously bullying anyone who fails to support a war in Iraq, then turning around and righteously attacking the people who are prosecuting it? ... Can you think of any nominees? I'm stumped. ... 12:34 A.M. link

Saturday, September 16, 2006

'Hey, Let's Lose the Election!' Part II: Ramesh Ponnuru has second thoughts about his New York Times op-ed  calling for the GOP to "win by losing" the House. ... Do fatal doubts expressed in a corner of The Corner shape opinion more than an op-ed in the Times? I don't think we're there yet! ... I also attempt [here]  to mock Jonah Goldberg's point that even though a Democratic House might pass a sweeping semi-amnesty immigration bill, "that would hand conservative Republicans a dream issue for 2008." ('Waterloo went badly for Napoleon--but hey, it gave him a great issue!' etc.) ... Move over Lonelygirl: Many viewers suspect that the video cited above is simply the unedited one-camera confessional of a neoliberal fogey whose library has just been carted off by his creditors. But it really is what it seems: the project of a trio of high-powered would-be Hollywood filmmakers represented by CAA. The man calling himself "Mickey" is actually a well-known Slovenian actor. ... 3:27 P.M. link

Bluff Called:

The American people are not on the side of the House Republicans who favor toughened enforcement and nothing more. On the contrary, a national consensus has formed around what the president calls "comprehensive" immigration reform--that is, impenetrable border security plus earned citizenship and a temporary worker program. But there's a wrinkle in the Senate. Democrats are certain to filibuster legislation consisting solely of enforcement. So it can't pass.

-- Fred Barnes, Weekly Standard, May 29

The House on Thursday easily passed a bill calling for construction of lengthy sections of double-layered fencing along the U.S. border with Mexico, sending the legislation to a Senate that appeared inclined to approve that and other security measures.

-- Los Angeles Times, Sept. 15

[Emphasis added] 5:07 A.M. link