Who will win the most hotly contested races for governor? The numbers below tell the story based on averages of the most recent polls in each state. The "momentum shift" arrow for each race indicates statistically meaningful trends in recent polls. How did we get these numbers?
Governors' Race Summary for Nov. 6:
Much has changed since our last governors' update two weeks ago. The two races that had been the closest—in Iowa and Oregon—now show the Democratic candidates leading by statistically meaningful margins. And two races that had looked like potential blowouts are now too close to call.
In Alaska, Democrat Tony Knowles has narrowed the lead of Republican Sarah Palin to three points (44.5 percent to 41.5 percent), just close enough to rate tossup status. A month ago, Palin had a 10-point lead on our last-five-poll average.
And in Maryland (not listed below), Democratic challenger Martin O'Malley has seen his lead over Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich on our last-five-poll average fall from eight points three weeks ago to just 1.8 points today (47.8 percent to 46 percent). The last three polls show O'Malley either leading by a single point (SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports) or tied (Mason-Dixon).
Click here for an archive of Governor Race Summaries.
|View Complete Race Details|
TODAY IN SLATE
The Most Terrifying Thing About Ebola
The disease threatens humanity by preying on humanity.
I Bought the Huge iPhone. I’m Already Thinking of Returning It.
Scotland Is Just the Beginning. Expect More Political Earthquakes in Europe.
Students Aren’t Going to College Football Games as Much Anymore
And schools are getting worried.
Two Damn Good, Very Different Movies About Soldiers Returning From War
Lifetime Didn’t Think the Steubenville Rape Case Was Dramatic Enough
So they added a little self-immolation.