Who will win the most hotly contested races for governor? The numbers below tell the story based on averages of the most recent polls in each state. The "momentum shift" arrow for each race indicates statistically meaningful trends in recent polls. How did we get these numbers?
Governors' Race Summary for Nov. 6:
Much has changed since our last governors' update two weeks ago. The two races that had been the closest—in Iowa and Oregon—now show the Democratic candidates leading by statistically meaningful margins. And two races that had looked like potential blowouts are now too close to call.
In Alaska, Democrat Tony Knowles has narrowed the lead of Republican Sarah Palin to three points (44.5 percent to 41.5 percent), just close enough to rate tossup status. A month ago, Palin had a 10-point lead on our last-five-poll average.
And in Maryland (not listed below), Democratic challenger Martin O'Malley has seen his lead over Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich on our last-five-poll average fall from eight points three weeks ago to just 1.8 points today (47.8 percent to 46 percent). The last three polls show O'Malley either leading by a single point (SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports) or tied (Mason-Dixon).
Click here for an archive of Governor Race Summaries.
|View Complete Race Details|
TODAY IN SLATE
Smash and Grab
Will competitive Senate contests in Kansas and South Dakota lead to more late-breaking races in future elections?
I Am 25. I Don’t Work at Facebook. My Doctors Want Me to Freeze My Eggs.
Republicans Want the Government to Listen to the American Public on Ebola. That’s a Horrible Idea.
The Most Ingenious Teaching Device Ever Invented
Tom Hanks Has a Short Story in the New Yorker. It’s Not Good.
Marvel’s Civil War Is a Far-Right Paranoid Fantasy
It’s also a mess. Can the movies do better?