kf Prepares for the Pivot!

kf Prepares for the Pivot!

kf Prepares for the Pivot!

A mostly political weblog.
Jan. 5 2010 9:11 PM

kf Prepares for the Pivot!

Willie Brown, Meet Willie Voegeli:  From "Willie's World," a column written by former California Assembly Speaker Willie Brown :  

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My God, he sounds like Charlie Peters. ... Also reminds me of this highly clarifying article . ... Another opportunity for angry left-right convergence! ... [ Thanks to alert reader L. ] 10:21 P.M.

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Bailout II Watch, Accountability Edition: Back in October, Big Money 's Matthew DeBord saw hope for General Motors, and trouble for Toyota ("the competition"), in the year end sales trends:

At the moment, signs are actually good for the Big Three. All are seeing their U.S. market share increase, while Toyota and Honda are seeing theirs trend down. ...

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For GM in particular, this is an important trend. In 2008, it saw a market-share spike at the end of the year (currently, its market share is about 20 percent). [E.A.]

DeBord didn't back down when challenged ("a trend is a trend")--even citing, as evidence of this "trend," the prediction from Edmunds.com that GM's share would "rise to just over 22 percent in October, comparable with its share from a year ago." Truth About Cars and kf scoffed. The results are now in. So who was right?

By my calculations, GM's market share in October was 21%, a point under the Edmunds' prediction. (A point is a big deal in the auto market.) It then fell back to a little over 20%. Over the three months since DeBord's trend-sighting--the last three months of 2009--GM's share has flatlined held steady at about 20.45%. Mighty blunt spike (though a small improvement over the previous lousy quarter).

Meanwhile, Toyota's share didn't trend "down," despite a legitimately damaging can't-turn-off-the-engine scandal . Toyota got 18.1% of the last three month's sales, also a small improvement over the previous quarter (17.5%).  

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I would say DeBord, grasping at phantom trends, was close to 70% wrong. Your mileage may vary.

P.S.: Grim spikeless long term GM charts available here  and here . According to a GM director, the corporation's recovery plans are based on maintaining at least a 19 percent share . So far, that minimal goal has been achieved. (With enough incentives .... ) But there's no promising year-end consumer shift in GM's favor. And Toyota is not in trouble. ... 9:54 P.M.

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Proof that, given freedom from heavy-handed regulation and the right human capital infrastructure, the profit-driven hipsters of Silicon Valley can create new bureaucracies just as inane as the government's in a matter of months. ... 9:47 P.M.

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