That's It? That's the Bounce?
Ead-Day At-Cay: WaPo reports that in the days after Obama's speech, the Dem health care plan was opposed by a 48 to 46 margin--versus a 50-45 margin in mid-August . ... From five points down to two points down. That's all he got for playing the joint-session-prime-time-address card? Does that seem like enough to you? ... P.S.: "[S]eniors remain solidly opposed to health-care reform, and the number who think government involvement would do more harm than good continues to rise ... " Update: J. Rubin says it's worse than it seems . ...
P.P.S.: How's The Dreidl going to spin those numbers? Marc Ambinder's colleague Chris Good notes that support rises to 50% vs. 42% if people are told that the "public option" has been dropped--suggesting that "Dropping Public Option [Would] Mean Health Reform Passes." That seems to be the Obama strategy: Pack all the opposition energy into the public option and then torch it in a Bonfire of Triangulation . But a) even 50-42 is a mighty thin margin on which to build a major piece of legislation. (Remember when Nate Silver thought 46-33 was insufficient ?) Again, Medicare had 63-28 support .) b) Is it a fair test of public opinion to ask for support/opposition,and then say "what if we toss in this big concession"? Will you get the same answer as if you flat out asked about the Dems' health plan at a time when it didn't have the 'public option'--and without highlighting that fact? I doubt it. c) This was a poll of adults, not likely voters--something that would not be lost on worried representatives of the people. ... 9/16 Update: d) Nate Silver suggests that any specificity tends to increase support for health care reform. So if the poll had asked about a public option being included , the numbers might have risen as well. ... Does this mean we should pay more attention to the results of the general, non-specific question, or wait until there are more specifics to ask about? I think it means we should look at the trend , which (for the non-specific question that was also asked back in August) is not as positive as you'd want if you were Obama. ...
9/15 Update: Rasmussen found a much bigger pro-health reform bounce (from nine down to five up)--but it has since dissipated . Latest: 52-45 against. ... 2:44 A.M.
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The MSM plot to destroy Obama : Meeting in a secret room off Statuary Hall , the leaders of the MSM have decided to sabotage President Obama's health care plan by promoting memes guaranteed to make voters who are skeptical about the President affirmatively hostile.
1. You're a bunch of racists !
2. We really do want to give illegal immigrants subsidized health care ! But the yahoos won't let us.
3. We want to kill granny too. ...
I guess it''s not like they're saying they'd really like to model a sixth of the U.S. economy on Castro's Cuba ! ... Oh, wait . 12:36 P.M.
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