CW = Contrarianism + Time: Let the record show that while analyst Charlie Cook may have backtracked from his rash "this cake is baked" prediction, according to the WSJ's "Washington Wire" his Cook Report colleague, Amy Walter, is still pushing the 1994 model, the idea that the GOP's 2006 problem is, in the WSJ's words, "comparable with the Democrats' predicament before 1994 defeat." ... She could be right! ... Meanwhile, ABC's Mark Halperin tells George Stephanopoulos [ at 36:54 ]:
People who think the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate than the House have too much time on their hands to make up theories. [E.A.]
Are Chuck Todd and John McIntyre going to take that lying down? ... 12:49 A.M.
Sunday, October 1, 2006
Cache it now: Web site of the day. 12:57 P.M.
Foley and the Best Boys: Clarice Feldman, a conservative, tries to find Democratic misbehavior in the outing of Rep. Foley and fails, as far as I can see. So what if a Soros-backed "watchdog" group coordinated the publicizing of the initial, not-that-damaging-but-suggestive email between Rep. Foley and a page? That's allowed. You're even allowed to wait until it's too late for the GOPs to take Foley off the ballot. The gambit only worked because Foley was guilty. ...
From Feldman's timeline, it also looks as if the St. Petersburg Times is innocent of the suggestion, made by RealClearPolitics, that it sat on the story until closer to the election. (See follow-up here.) The first emails that the SPT had ("send me a pic of you") were simply less damning, by several orders of magnitude, than the later instant messages* that came out just last week ("get a ruler and measure it for me"). The paper seems to have made a plausible judgment not to publish, though maybe it shouldn't win any investigative awards.
It's slightly less unfair to blame the House Republican leadership--sure, the evidence in the first emails wasn't much. But did they really have no idea what Foley was up to? Don't these rumors get around the Hill pretty quickly?** It's not like Foley was co-chair of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Chil .... oh wait. Someone could maybe have called Foley in and given him the third degree--e.g. about what other emails might be out there. Hastert's aides could have asked Foley to permit a search of his computer. Maybe there were alternative methods of interrogation, or other ways to check out his story. Where's Patricia Dunn when you need her?
But that's a judgment call, and the GOP leadership screw-up is a lot clearer in retrospect.
The only clearly guilty party, as far as I can see--aside from Foley--is the New York Times, which hyped the anti-Hastert angle by conflating the earlier, suggestive emails and the later damning ones. Here's the Carl Hulse/Raymond Hernandez Times lede: