Plus--'I meant Benedict Arnold in a good way'

Shorter Terror-Alert Story Line:

Old Anti-Bush Spin: Why are you warning us about these threats now?

New Anti-Bush Spin: Why are you telling us why you are warning us about these threats now?

Old Anti-Bush Spin: Why did you wait three weeks before issuing the alert?

New Anti-Bush Spin: Why didn't you wait longer?

If Bush did blow part of the Al Qaeda investigation by prematurely revealing the name of a Pakistani computer engineer who'd been "turned" and was operating as a double agent, that's a serious screw-up. (Juan Cole is all over this angle.) But how many of those who will jump on Bush for any misguided revelation are the same people (e.g. Howard Dean, WaPo) who a week ago were the very ones pressuring him to reveal more about why he'd issued an "alert" about a three year old plot to blow up financial institutions--insinuating he was doing it for political reasons? ... Even shorter spin sum-up: How dare you be cowed by us! ... 11:53 P.M.

Did I Mention That Benedict Arnold Had Some Fine Qualities? Discriminations catches the Kerry campaign erasing from its Web site the primary-campaign denunciations of "Benedict Arnold CEOS" that don't fit Kerry's new, narrower, business-friendly definition of "Benedict Arnold." (The term doesn't apply, we're told, to U.S. firms that ship American jobs overseas to take advantage of cheap foreign labor. Who knew?)... P.S.: Will it be that easy to erase Kerry's convention promise not to cut Social Security benefits? 8:36 P.M.

This John Crudele column from Thursday's N.Y. Post is now looking mighty prescient. It also offers a relatively benign, statistical explanation for the weak July job growth numbers released today. ... Update: Alert reader C.G. notes that the "Net Birth/Death Adjustment," the statistical factor Crudele cites, subtracted 91,000 jobs from the published total for July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Web site. Even if you add back in all those jobs, the net job total is still only 123,000--substantially less than Wall Street's expectations. ... P.S.: Note also that the "birth/death" adjustment added 182,000 jobs to last month's total. Without it, the BLS would have reported a net job loss of more than 100,000 for June. ... Still, given the importance attached to the monthly jobs number, it's disturbing that it contains such a large fudge factor. Even the BLS concedes the "birth/death" adjustment is imprecise--"the most problematic part of the estimation process." ... P.P.S.: The other glaring flaw in the BLS "payroll" survey, from which the net job number is generated, is that (as the BLS puts it) "Data exclude proprietors, self-employed ... farm workers, and domestic workers." The exclusion of the self-employed seems particularly troubling, given the economy's apparent increased reliance on freelancers and consultants, etc. (For additional criticism of the payroll survey, see this Heritage paper.) ... P.P.P.S.: The point isn't that the weak July number should be ignored. But a) maybe we should pay a bit more attention to the smaller--but seemingly more comprehensive--government survey of households, which has been delivering relatively good news (629,000 jobs  in July); and b) maybe we should treat the monthly fluctuations in the BLS payroll survey a bit more like we treat daily fluctuations in the Rasmussen poll and a bit less like the word of God. 8:24 A.M.

Thursday, August 5, 2004

You tell her! Valuable voter feedback for Kerry's campaign from deep within the comments section of Ruy Teixeira's Donkey Rising:

I attended the Kerry rally in downtown GR MI 8/2. A huge noon time crowd, nearly 10,000, in this very conservative GOP area. The size was beyond everyone's expectations.

The rally was held on a 2 acre+ concrete plaza, on a very hot day with the temp on that surface nearly 100 degrees. We had to wait hours for the festivities to begin because of the security checks prior to entrance.

Finally the Kerry entourage arrived; but before the candidate spoke, up stepped Theresa. Instead of expressing a few words of gratitude to the long suffering crowd and making a short intro speech for her husband, we were treated to a too long, and may I say self indulgent discourse.

There on the stage was our wonderful gov., [Jennifer] Granholm, who was permitted to say nothing. None of the down ticket people were allowed a word either; although in that heat they may not have been welcomed by the crowd.

Theresa took all of the air out of the rally. People started to leave before Sen. Kerry finished. They had to go back to work, find water or start back to home through heavy traffic. We don't need this. I expressed my feelings to the campaign thru Kerry's blog, but I don't have any hope that anyone will listen.

Sooner or later the media will start reporting on these instances and then the Bush people will climb on the criticism wagon having been given permission by the media.

Kerry's people need to get a clue and play more to the comfort of his supporters during these hot weather weeks of the campaign. They and he also need to realize that although we like and admire Theresa, we go to these events to hear the Sen. speak.

Posted by GR Joe at August 4, 2004 12:50 PM  [Emphasis added]

Time to send Teresa on a long global fact-finding mission? I would say the role of women in developing countries urgently needs hands-on investigation.  With her African background, Teresa's the perfect person for the job. ... [Thanks to alert reader T.] 12:20 A.M.

Wednesday, August 4, 2004