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Kerry's Race to Lose!

Plus--the real McGreevey scandal.

Jeff Jarvis suggests that  the scandal isn't so much that Gov. Jim McGreevey may have put his male lover in New Jersey's $110,000-a-year homeland security adviser job, it's that New Jersey has a $110,000-a-year homeland security adviser job! ... P.S.: A few days ago, when I linked to Jim Pinkerton's piece  lamenting the "creation of a permanent, self-perpetuating AIDS bureaucracy" I got the following e-mail from reader A.L.:

Your apparent agreement with the comments of Pinkerton in his op-ed in the LA Times, concerning the creation of a self-sustaining Aids bureaucracy, seems a bit odd considering that this disease is on track to become the single biggest global cause of death each year.  Would you consider homeland security and the intelligence services part of a self-sustaining terror bureaucracy, with no interest in ending terrorism because it justifies their funding? 

The answer is yes, it's a problem, potentially a big one--especially if 50 different governors create their own terror mini-bureaucracies that then lobby for continued federal subsidies, stage their own publicity-seeking busts and muddle up the chain of command. ... 9:01 P.M.

Honesty Doesn't Pay II--Matthew Dowd on Line 2: John Ellis--political maven, blogger, and Bush cousin-- makes the mistake of setting expectations  for a GOP convention bounce at a number greater than zero.

Isn't President Bush leading in the Gallup Poll now? Isn't it likely that President Bush's lead in the Gallup Poll will increase somewhat following the Republican National Convention and the 9/11 anniversary? If President Bush is up by, say, six in the Gallup Poll after Labor Day, won't he be the favorite to win in November? [Emph. added.]

Note: Bush is currently up by 2 in the contrarian Gallup survey, so Ellis is really talking about a bump of 4 points. ... 8:17 P.M.

Honesty Doesn't Pay I--Today's Kerry Uh-oh Moment: From ABC's Noted Now  ...

But the exotic nature of some of the sports he plays (say, kite-surfing in Nantucket) and the great lengths he goes in order to play them (say, flying from Idaho to Oregon to windsurf), can have the unintended effect of making him seem out of touch with the hard-pressed middle class whose cares he says have been his concern.

As his plane was flying from Oregon to Idaho on Saturday, Kerry defended his taste in sports, saying, "The guys who do it are all local guys -- plumbers, construction workers."

Asked if these regular folks fly from one state to another, the husband of the condiment heiress downplayed the cost, saying, "What? 250 bucks for a ticket?"

Luckily for Kerry, the moment was not on camera. But it was the kind of moment -- if captured on camera -- that could undo months of work. (Think of George H.W. Bush looking perplexed at a super-market scanner in 1992). [Emph. added]

It's Kerry's race to lose! And he's racing as fast as he can. ... P.S.: He's right, of course--ordinary Americans pay $250 bucks to go windsurfing all the time. Which of the "Two Americas" are they in, again? ... 8:14 P.M.

Saturday, August 14, 2004

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