Where the midterm elections stand today.
Updated Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2006, at 6:25 PM
House Race Summary for Oct. 17:
Since our last summary, we have changed from talking about the generic ballot to a more precise look at what's happening in contested races. Below is a list of the 63 hottest House races. Click on an individual race to jump to the most recent polling, or scroll down the page to see how all the competitive races have been shaping up. (Click herefor an archive of House Race Summaries based on our previous generic House ballot.)
One of the challenges of using polling data from individual races is that public polls are plentiful in a small handful of competitive districts and rare in most others. For example, the majority of the most closely watched races have been polled only two or three times since late August. So, we have nowhere near as much data for House races as we do for closely contested Senate and governor races.
We do see some clear leaders. Keeping in mind that Democrats need to gain 16 seats to win control of the House, we looked closely at the most hotly contested seats currently held by Republicans. We looked only at nonpartisan surveys conducted since late August. In districts that have been polled at least twice, we see Democrats leading beyond the margin of error in nine districts: Arizona-8, Colorado-7, Indiana-2, Indiana-8, Indiana-9, North Carolina-11, New Mexico-1, New York-26, and Pennsylvania-10.
That would make a total pickup of 13 seats, but Democratic gains could be much greater if present trends continue. At least a dozen hotly contested seats currently held by Republicans look too close to call based on the available data, and no Republican leads by a significant margin in any district currently held by a Democrat.
Data provided by Pollster.com
Mark Blumenthal is a Democratic pollster and the editor and publisher of Pollster.com, the new home of his blog MysteryPollster.
Charles Franklin is a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, author of the blogPolitical Arithmetik, and a co-developer and contributor to Pollster.com. For comments and questions, please write to firstname.lastname@example.org.