Readers try to predict what kind of holiday the retail industry will have.

Where Slate readers predict the future.
Nov. 22 2010 6:47 AM

The Hard Sell

Readers try to predict what kind of holiday the retail industry will have.

By tradition, the holiday shopping season begins the Friday after Thanksgiving (which, despite what you may have heard, is not the busiest shopping day of the year, though it may be the most dangerous). In reality the holiday shopping season has already started, as have the predictions about whether it'll be bad or good. No one expects 2010 to be as horrible as 2008, which was one of the worst holiday shopping seasons ever. But will it be better than last year?

The final numbers won't be known until January, but until then we can track the S&P Retail Index. Last year it closed at 411. This year it has reached as high as 499. Where will it be when the 2010 holiday shopping season ends? This poll will close on Nov. 23.

Question: What will the S&P Retail Index close at on Dec. 31, 2010? Please choose an answer from 400 to 600.