Contact: Holly Schilling at Flax & Booker

NEW YORK, N.Y.—Nov. 9, 8:45 a.m.—For immediate release.

Business Release Network—With the presidential election safely behind us, it's time to focus on the Next Big Thing for the United States—the Christmas shopping season. For retailers, the four weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas can make or break the whole year. According to the National Retail Federation, the holiday season accounts for nearly 23 percent of annual sales. The International Council of Shopping Centers forecasts holiday sales will rise about 5 percent this year. But is this Yuletide really a season for optimism?

Television producers, editors, and reporters interested in a fair and balanced coverage of the holiday shopping season should consider the many things that could go wrong. Flax & Booker is pleased to offer the insights of Will Fretmoor, managing partner of market research firm O.Y. Veigh & Co. Mr. Fretmoor, author of the semiannual Worrisome Trends,is an avid reader of both the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal,an occasional watcher of CNBC, and a frequent visitor to the Mall at Short Hills. Mr. Fretmoor has a knack for speaking pithily, doing his own makeup, and cutting through the optimistic chatter to find the dark linings on all the silver clouds.

"What could go wrong this Yuletide?" says Mr. Fretmoor. "Don't ask. But if you insist on asking, here are my top seven concerns about the 2004 Christmas shopping season."

1. Pump Shock. Despite the recent decline, gasoline prices nationwide averaged $2.04 per gallon last week. As Jay McIntosh, Americas Director of Retail and Consumer Products for Ernst & Young, warned in September, "Higher prices at the pump will have a two-fold effect: higher distribution costs for suppliers and retailers and less disposable income for consumers." That's more cash in Mobil's stockings and less in yours.

2. Motley Fuel. The price of heating oil has spiked in recent months. Consumers in the nation's chillier regions could be shocked into Christmas-season parsimony once they realize they're in for a long, expensive winter. As Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Friedman said at a conference, "Their October bill may give them a scare."

3. Macro Dismay. You don't have to be grumpy ursus like Paul Krugman to worry about structural imbalances, long-term trends in income distribution, and the price of credit. In addition to higher energy costs (see above), the National Retail Federation's chief economist Rosalind Wells cited "rising interest rates, geopolitical threats and slow income growth," as potential Christmas party poopers.

4. Dude, Where's My Cargo? Gridlock may be banished from Washington, but it's wreaking havoc in the nation's transportation infrastructure. In October, Daniel Machalaba and Bruce Stanley reported in the Wall Street Journal that gridlock at the ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach, which handle about 40 percent of incoming container ships, are "adding as much as a week to the typical vessel's monthlong journey from Asia to its final destination in the U.S." and "causing a scramble among manufacturers and retailers counting on the on-time delivery of goods for Christmas."

5. No Phones Home. Also from the Wall Street Journal:concern that cell phone giant Motorola could see a repeat of its disastrous 2003 Christmas season, when it failed to bring sufficient numbers of camera cell phones to market. Motorola's strategy of introducing new products specifically for the Christmas season may invite potential snags in both quality and on-time shipment.