In addition to a whole bunch of speculation in the Veepstakes, Wednesday brought a giant heap of new presidential polling. As always, general election polling before the conventions tells us more about the present than it does the future, and it’s always a mistake to ignore polling averages in favor of focusing on only the latest results. But with that said, here’s what we can take away from the new data:
1. A new McClatchy/Marist national survey gave Clinton a 3-point lead, 42 percent to 39 percent, in a head-to-head matchup with Donald Trump. Hillary’s lead was 9 points the last time those same pollsters asked the question at the end of March, though her current advantage isn’t far off the 4.3-point lead she has in the latest RealClearPolitics rolling average.
2. The same survey found Clinton leading Trump by 5 points, 40 percent to 35 percent, when respondents were also given the option of picking the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson (10 percent) or the Green Party’s Jill Stein (5 percent). Hillary’s advantage on Trump in the RCP rolling average in a four-candidate race is currently 4 points.
3. A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio found Trump and Clinton tied in a head-to-head contest and Trump with a 1-point lead on Clinton in a four-way race. A new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll also found the pair tied in Ohio in a two-way race, but had Clinton up 3 points in a four-way contest. The RCP rolling average in the state currently has Clinton up 1.3 points on Trump head-to-head, and up 1 point in a four-way race. Fun fact no. 1: Trump registered zero support among black Ohio respondents in the NBC/WSJ survey.
4. The Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania found Trump with a 2-point lead on Clinton in a head-to-head contest, and a 6-point lead in a four-way race. The NBC/WSJ/Marist survey, though, found Clinton up by 9 points in a one-on-one contest and 8 points in a four-candidate field. The RCP rolling average in the state currently has Clinton up 3.2 points on Trump head-to-head, and up 1 point in a four-way race. Fun fact no. 2: Trump also registered zero support among black Pennsylvania respondents in the NBC/WSJ survey.
5. The Quinnipiac poll in Florida found Trump with a 3-point lead on Clinton in a head-to-head contest, and a 5-point lead in a four-way race. The RCP rolling average has Trump up 0.2 points on Clinton head-to-head, and up 0.8 points in a four-way race.
6. The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll in Iowa found Clinton with a 3-point lead in Iowa in a head-to-head contest, and the pair tied in a four-way race. A new Gravis poll, meanwhile, found Clinton with a 2 point-lead in both a two- and four-candidate field in the state. The RCP rolling average has Clinton up 3.8 points in a head-to-head, and up 3.2 points in a four-way race.
5. A new Marquette poll in Wisconsin found Clinton with a 4-point lead on Trump in a two-way race, and a 6-point lead in a four-way contest. The RCP rolling average has Clinton up 5.6 points in a head-to-head, and up 5.5 points in a four-way race.
6. A new Monmouth poll in Colorado found Clinton with a 13-point lead on Trump in Colorado in a four-way race. The RCP rolling average has Clinton up 7 points in that contest.
So what to make of all that? According to Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight team, taken together, all those results are relatively good news for Trump. Yesterday, the numbers-focused outlet pegged Trump’s chances of winning in November at 22.8 percent based on the available polling. Today, they have him at 29.2 percent. Whether you see that number as a reason to freak out or not is up to you, but seeing as we’re a few days away from the national conventions and a few months away from Election Day, I recommend keeping some emotional energy in reserve for all the ups and downs that will happen along the way.
