The polls—so many polls. They will just keep coming between now and Election Day, making it easy to forget the golden rule of polling: Don’t get distracted by a single survey. With that in mind, Slate will be checking in once a week to see what’s changed—and what hasn’t—in the 2016 presidential polls.
Where Do the Polls Stand Today?
The national averages are tight—roughly as tight as they were when we checked last week.
RealClearPolitics:
- Head-to-head: Clinton +2.1 (Clinton 45.5 percent, Trump 43.4 percent)
- Four-way race: Clinton + 1.1 (Clinton 41.0, Trump 39.9, Gary Johnson 8.8, Jill Stein 2.9)
Huffington Post:
- Head-to-head: Clinton +4.1 points (Clinton 45.9 percent, Trump 41.8 percent)
- Three-way race: Clinton + 2.2 points (Clinton 41.6, Trump 39.4, Johnson 8.6, other 3.6)
Depending on which average you go by, Clinton’s lead has fallen by as much as nine-tenths of a point (HuffPo’s three-way) or grown by as much as three-tenths of a point (in both head-to-head averages) in the past week. With the national averages holding relatively steady—and the latest state surveys all over the map—we also haven’t seen all that much movement in the numbers-centric forecasts. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight now gives Clinton a roughly 59 percent chance of victory in its polls-only forecast, while the New York Times’ Upshot gives Hillary a 73 percent chance of winning this fall. Both are down 2 points from where they were this time last week. One exception: the Princeton Election Consortium, which dropped Hillary’s chances from 89 percent to 80 percent over the past seven days. Hillary’s half-empty set will focus on the 9-point drop; their half-full counterparts will keep their eyes locked on the number that says she still has a four-in-five chance of becoming president.
What’s going on?
We can’t say for certain why we’ve seen a leveling out over the past week. Those who want to see a Clinton rebound can point to the emergence of Trump’s rebranded birtherism and perhaps this past weekend’s bombings in New Jersey and New York. But that appears to be just wishful thinking at the moment. As FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten pointed out Thursday, of the 16 state and national polls released in three previous days, only three showed the race moving in Clinton’s direction, while 10 found things trending toward the Trump-ocalypse.
How Should Trump Supporters Feel Today?
Pretty good! With 46 days until Election Day, their man is still hanging around and has a realistic chance to pull off the upset against Clinton. He’ll have to survive the debates—the first of which is Monday—but his team has been working overtime to keep expectations low, and many talking heads have bought what Team Trump is selling.
How Should Clinton Supporters Feel Today?
Nervous. Clinton may or may not be on the rebound but she does appear to have at least temporarily stopped the bleeding after a rough few news cycles that were dominated by her health and her “basket of deplorables” remarks. That’s the good news. The bad? We’re less than 7 weeks away from Election Day and her advantage over Donald freaking Trump is currently less than Barack Obama’s ultimate margin of victory over Mitt Romney four years ago.
