It’s hardly a secret just how important Indiana has become in the Republican contest. And a new poll out Sunday is likely giving heartburn to the GOP establishment eager to find a way to stop Donald Trump before the convention. According to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, Trump has support from 49 percent of likely Republican Indiana voters, while Cruz has 34 percent and John Kasich, 13 percent. Trump’s 14-point lead is much wider than other polls in the state and suggests momentum could be on the billionaire’s side.
“If a result even close to this occurs on Tuesday, then we can all get ready to find a new party to call home,” writes Red State’s Leon Wolf.
It’s still possible for Cruz and Kasich to pick up enough delegates to prevent Trump from obtaining the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination. “But the path to doing so narrows substantially if Mr. Trump sweeps Indiana and wins all of its 57 delegates,” notes the Wall Street Journal. Getting all the delegates wouldn’t be that far-fetched if Trump’s lead is as large as the poll suggests. In Indiana, the state winner gets 30 delegates automatically and then candidates get three delegates for each of the nine congressional districts they win.
“A loss in Indiana would represent a near-fatal blow to Mr. Cruz’s campaign and would significantly increase pressure on him to withdraw from the race,” notes the New York Times. The state has been widely seen as the last chance for Cruz to obtain a big victory before the race moves to several big states that look very favorable to Trump, mainly California and New Jersey.
Considering the latest poll, it seems hardly surprising Trump was confident on Sunday, saying that if he wins on Tuesday, the Republican contest will essentially end. “Yes, it’s over. I think it’s over now, but it’s over,”’ he said on Fox News Sunday. “Cruz cannot win, he’s got no highway, he’s got nothing, he’s way behind. I’m leading him by millions and millions of votes and I’m leading him by 400 or 500 delegates. He can’t win.”
Right now, Trump has 996 delegates, while Cruz has 565 and Kasich has 153, according to the Associated Press.
