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The Long Crisis, 50-Year Forecast by Jamais CascioTimeline written for the Institute for the Future's Ten-Year Forecast Program

2010: "Decarbonization Challenge" under way

2014: "False Dawn" recovery begins

2015: "Global Storming": massive weather events
United Nations stops public-private geo-engineering attempt
Decarbonization too costly, focus on adaptation

2017: Drought, heat kill tens of thousands across Northern Hemisphere

2018: United Nations accepts stratospheric-injection geo-engineering plans

2019: Recording sensors commonplace in West

2020: Temp: +1 degree Celsius over 1990; Carbon: 395 parts per million; Population: 7.6 billion
1 billion people displaced or with refugee status
World GDP peaks at $68 trillion (2008 dollars)
40-year global recession begins
4 billion living in in poverty
Global Powers: U.S., EU, China

2022: Global terror attacks (many with microbots) reignite conflicts

2023: China demands U.S. repay debts; U.S. defaults; U.S.-China "Cold Shoulder" period begins
India, Pakistan exchange gunfire
India first to use fully autonomous military robots in warfare

2024: India-Pakistan nuclear exchange
Great Migration: many South/Southeast Asians move to Europe
China transfers fallout zone communities to depopulated regions in Africa

2025: Fallout, dust problem; stratospheric injection suspended
Global Famine I
Nuclear Arms Elimination Treaty  talks begin
General-purpose 3-D printers available

2026: Temperature instability; U.N. Climate Management Agency formed
China assailed for "New Colonialism"
Insurgents attack biofuel plantations
African biohackers find AIDS cure

2027: "Glorica": Open-source rice strain for very high yields in low-water conditions

2028: Global Famine I eases

2029: 99942 Apophis asteroid near approach
Apophis emergency triggers U.S.-China space cooperation
"Cold Shoulder" period ends
NAET signed by all U.N. members

2030: Temp: -1 degree Celsius under 1990; Carbon: 410 ppm; Population: 7.2 billion
2.5 billion people displaced/refugee status
World GDP: $54 trillion
5.5 billion in poverty
Global Powers: U.S., EU, China
U.S., China negotiate repayment
Local fabrication disrupts trade networks
Major unrest, strikes in U.S.

2031: Iran, South Africa, Indonesia, Brazil launch "New Alignment" trade network

2033: Apophis trajectory shifted, emergency ends

2034: Post-nuclear dust eases, temperatures spike
Stratospheric injection restarted
Last oil-fueled commercial vehicle built

2035: Temperatures remain unstable
Southeast Asia: unusually heavy storms
North America, EU: massive droughts
Recording sensors common globally, for NAET enforcement

2036: Islamic finance networks attacked by viral money
China-Iran proxy war in Central Africa
Svalbard Seed Vault plans parallel vault for animal biology

2037: Chinese investment networks under viral attack
China accuses Iran of funding Western China insurgents; Iran accuses China of Islamic finance system attacks
Iranian, Chinese autonomous military systems clash in Afghanistan
Engineered wheat blight unleashed

2038: Global Famine II
New Alignment network splits
Global financial networks collapse under relentless viral attack, now autonomous

2039: Global depression peaks; hits North America, Russia, Europe, China hardest
Secessionist movements worldwide

U.S. splits: United States of America (Midwest + Great Basin, military power); Pacifica (West Coast, technology); New Columbia (Atlantic seaboard, finance); Gulf and Southern Federation (economic-environmental depression); Republic of Texas; Republic of Alaska; People's Kingdom of Hawaii; Caribbean Federation (South Florida, Cuba, Protectorate Islands)

EU splits: European Free Trade Zone: (Ireland, France, Belgium, Germany, Holland, Poland); Mediterranean Coalition: (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Egypt, Greece, Libya); U.K., Scandinavia pull out of European coalitions entirely

China: mass unrest, near civil war

Russia: civil war

2040: Temp: +2 degrees Celsius over 1990; Carbon: 425 ppm; Population: 5.9 billion
1.5 billion people displaced/refugee status
World GDP: $48 trillion
5 billion in poverty
Global Powers: Iran, U.S., Brazil, Japan, Mediterranean Coalition
Limited Machine Intelligence developed in Japan
Svalbard Fauna Vault opens

2041: Temperatures stabilize; UNCMA declares Ocean Acidification Emergency, requests immediate cuts to carbon emissions

2042: China stabilizes, becomes confederation of mini-states
Cure for wheat blight developed; wheat recultivation begins

2043: Svalbard Seed Vault releases heirloom wheat seeds
First new wheat crop fails, requires protective modification

2044: Second wheat restart successful
UNCMA again requests immediate carbon action

2045: Global Famine II eases

2046: Russian civil war ends, rumors of bioweapon use
U.S.: Gulf and Southern Federation (GSF) undertaking "rogue" geo-engineering effort

2047: Money virus eliminated from financial networks

2049: UNCMA releases "Ocean Extinction" report, demands cessation of carbon emissions by 2055 to avoid disaster

2050: Temp: +2 degrees Celsius over 1990; Carbon: 431 ppm: Population: 6 billion
0.75 billion people displaced/refugee status
World GDP: $54 trillion
3 billion in poverty
Global powers: Iran, U.S., Brazil, Japan, Mediterranean Coalition

2051: Global census: slight increase in population, first since 2020
"Jubilee Year" declared; most debts forgiven

2052: U.S. attempts reunification with Gulf and Southern Federation by force
First use of nanoscale weapons

2053: U.S. forces occupy GSF; insurgency erupts

2054: U.S.: New Columbia and Pacifica supplying GSF insurgents

2055: First nanofactory produced in Japan, under strict controls
UNCMA: mass extinctions in world's oceans imminent

2056: Total collapse of most large fisheries
Mediterranean Coalition leads work on Ocean Recovery Plan

2059: First year World GDP matches 2020

2060: [Projected]
Temp: +2 degrees Celsius over 1990; Carbon: 438 ppm; Population 6.2 billion
.5 billion people displaced/refugee status
World GDP: $69 trillion
2 billion in poverty
Global Powers: Iran, U.S., Brazil, Japan, Mediterranean Coalition