Our scorecard tracks contests for governors in the 12 most competitive races. The table shows the last-five-poll average in each race. Blue state names indicate a statistically meaningful lead for the Democrat ("likely" status or better), while a red state name indicates a meaningful lead for the Republican (for the statistically minded, our standard is a lead of a least one standard error, a modest statistical advantage). Those states listed in black are ones we classify as "tossups"—those races in which neither candidate shows a significant lead over the last five polls. States in which an independent has a lead are green. Safe seats are those for which the candidate consistently has a statistically significant lead (in this case, a lead of more than two standard errors).
The momentum shift arrow for each race indicates a statistically meaningful trend toward one of the candidates over the last five polls. Click "See complete race details" to bring up a chart showing the most recent results. We have included all polls based on random probability sampling, including those conducted using an automated methodology rather than live interviews.
Why a five-poll average? Results for pre-election polls often vary due to random sampling error as well as differences in methodology (question wording, sampling, the survey mode, or the way pollsters define likely voters). While averaging is an imperfect solution, we believe a five-poll average provides a more reliable snapshot of data available for each race than focusing on only the single latest poll does.