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Why the Predictors Got It Wrong

By Posted Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2000, at 11:30 PM ET
Year Predicted share Actual share Difference Predicted winner Actual winner
1968 48.7% 49.6% -0.90% Nixon Nixon
1972 40.9% 38.2% 2.70% Nixon Nixon
1976 50.9% 51.1% -0.20% Carter Carter
1980 46.3% 44.7% 1.60% Reagan Reagan
1984 39.2% 40.9% -1.70% Reagan Reagan
1988 45.9% 46.1% -0.20% Bush Bush
1992 55.8% 53.5% 2.30% Clinton Clinton
1996 50.9% 54.7% -3.80% Clinton Clinton
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