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Forecasting the Digital Age

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from: Esther Dyson
to: Eugene Linden

Posted Tuesday, Nov. 10, 1998, at 3:30 AM ET

This herd instinct can be fixed by more transparency of information, because the Net is making the truth harder to ignore. But I repeat myself. Let me answer your (new) questions:
What you're seeing is not so much an unstable world as a decentralized world. The Old World was one of rigidities, where we kept a lid on things until there was an earthquake of some kind--much like the earthquakes we're having now.
The world of the future will feel more like airline turbulence: continual little shakes all the time. I think there will be a profusion of creativity ... people solving local problems, small businesses using the Net to overcome the disadvantages of diseconomies of scale. I see the last couple of years as quite a sea change. Suddenly the truth matters, for everyone from the Soviets and the South Africans to Bill Clinton and Augusto Pinochet. The best way to regulate markets is not with some central authority that can be co-opted or pacified, but with a decentralized system of banks that are responsible for their own decisions. The problem you are seeing now was caused by lots of banks that relied on central authorities--national banks and ultimately the International Monetary Fund--to rescue them from their own carelessness. In other words, they probably knew (or willfully ignored) the truth but figured they could escape the consequences. Now they are beginning to realize that there is no all-absorbent lender of last resort, and I think they will be a lot more careful the next time around. Local banks and individuals, as long as they cannot rely on a rigid, government-fixed market, are likely to make much better and better-informed investments. They can see real investment opportunities, rather than tallest-building projects. Look at the successes of micro lending worldwide.
Meanwhile, as the world becomes more visible because of the Net, and as people find it is easier to make their voices heard and to gather adherents to a point of view, my fervent hope is that people will become more active, more mindful, more politically involved. The experience of having an impact on things you care about is tremendously addictive. The Net provides a very powerful tool for individuals to get involved and feel the satisfaction of solving some of the problems you describe.
I have to believe that people as individuals, empowered, are more likely to have "good" goals than organizations, which end up "caring" mostly about self-perpetuation (the salaries and power of the individuals within them) and profits (for the benefit of their shareholders, as for-profit companies are directed by legal/fiduciary responsibilities). Individuals, by contrast, have more human goals--profit, yes, but also personal integrity, the future of their children, the respect of their neighbors and colleagues, the desire to do meaningful work and create beautiful, useful products. Of course, it's a balance, but I think shifting the balance in favor of human goals, which on balance are more "positive" than organizational goals, is a good thing.
That doesn't mean we don't need governments to keep law and order, and to do collectively what we would not do as individuals, but overall decentralization is probably a positive, stabilizing force. When it goes too far, yes, we get fragmentation, but I do not think we have yet gone far enough in most places. We need to reduce the herd instincts, improve local decisions, and get individuals more involved.

Esther

dialogues
entries
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from: Esther Dyson
to: Eugene Linden

Posted Tuesday, Nov. 10, 1998, at 3:30 AM ET
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Eugene Linden writes about science, technology, and the environment for Time magazine. He is author of The Future in Plain Sight. Esther Dyson is chairman of EDventure Holdings and a member of the board of the Electronic Frontier Foundation. She is author of Release 2.0: A Design for Living in the Digital Age. Click to purchase The Future in Plain Sight or Release 2.0: A Design for Living in the Digital Age from Amazon.com.
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