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Circles in the SandWithout democratic reforms in Chad, peace is impossible in Darfur.

By Celeste HicksPosted Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2009, at 12:22 PM ET

Sudanese refugees pray at Oure Cassoni Refugee Camp OURE CASSONI, Chad—Oure Cassoni refugee camp in northeast Chad is about as close to the end of the world as it gets. Arriving at the nearby airstrip, I spotted the one solitary tree bent against the driving desert wind. As I sat waiting for a ride, it disappeared intermittently behind a yellow haboob, a sandstorm. Nearby, Bahay village clings to the edge of a bleached-out sand dune, little more than a few metal shacks and a parched, white UNHCR office.

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But far from being a forgotten outpost, this refugee camp is something of a nexus in the geopolitics of Darfur. Home to 27,000 refugees, most of whom have been here for more than five years, in the words of Victor Angelo, the U.N. special representative to Chad, it's also a "rest and recuperation facility" for rebels from the Justice and Equality Movement, who say they're fighting a war in Darfur.

Every few months, another journalist calls me from the bar of the Novotel hotel in N'Djamena, Chad's capital, asking for advice about what the European expat community has come to call the "JEM safari." It is possible to fly into Oure Cassoni camp, make a couple of contacts, and meet a bona fide turban-clad rebel within hours. My rendezvous with Abderahmane Banad, JEM's humanitarian coordinator, took place inside a mobile-phone shop in the camp's market.

Although JEM's higher-ranking officers are sensible enough to stay away, knowing their safety is at risk if their positions are known, lower cadres are often seen driving around in their distinctive black pickup trucks. Refugee women watch as the armed men cruise past, rocket-propelled grenades hanging like a spray of juggling clubs from the back of their vehicles. According to Banad, "They're just coming to buy food in the market or get their cars repaired."

But loyalties in this camp are complex. While no one enjoys the presence of guns in what is nominally a "humanitarian space," and many mothers told me they lament JEM's recruitment of child soldiers, the rebels and refugees are bound together. They're from the same ethnic group, the Zaghawa, and as long as many of the refugees feel they cannot return home, they look on the rebels as de facto protectors.

"We know that if we return to Sudan, the fighting is still going on—bombings by the army are happening all the time" says Izadine Kashir. Now 22, he's been living in the camp since he was a teenager. "We feel like no one can really protect us, so JEM being here is OK with me."

An elderly Sudanese refugee The UNHCR is pragmatic about the chances of return for most of the 260,000 Darfur refugees living in 12 camps in Chad. After all, on the other side of the border, JEM and other Sudanese rebel groups continue to attack Sudanese army positions, and Sudanese army planes strafe the refugees' homelands.

"Repatriation needs to be voluntary and carried out in safety, dignity, and sustainable conditions" says the UNHCR's Mans Nyberg. "This is clearly not possible—fighting continues in Darfur, and it's obvious we're looking at a prolonged situation"

In fact, JEM's presence in these Zaghawa desert heartlands is a reflection of a circular pattern of conflict in eastern Chad and Darfur, a factor that is sometimes overlooked in the search for a sustainable solution for refugees.

Early on in the Darfur conflict, President Idriss Déby of Chad found himself squeezed. For a while he held out against his Zaghawa kinsmen who wanted him to help JEM, because he wanted to preserve his relationship with Sudanese President Omar El-Bashir. In the end, he lost control, and JEM began to make a foothold in eastern Chad. As El-Bashir realized the growing threat, he became determined to take revenge, backing a motley collection of Chadian rebels who had few aims beyond knocking Déby out of office and getting their hands on Chad's not inconsiderable oil wealth. Fluid alliances were forged and broken, and loyalties betrayed—the current leader of the Chadian rebel Union of Resistance Forces is Timan Erdimi, himself a Zaghawa—and also Déby's nephew.

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Celeste Hicks is the BBC's correspondent in Chad. She has worked for the BBC since 2000, starting her reporting career in her native northern England before moving on to Somalia and Mali.

Photographs of Sudanese refugees at Oure Cassoni Refugee Camp by Marco Di Lauro/Getty Images.

COMMENTS

It's too bad the Hollywood floosies got a hold of the Darfur issue and wore it on their sleeves like Lance Armstrong wristbands. The whole issue got completely blown out of proportion with words like genocide thrown around. In the end the truth is far more prosaic, if no less sad. It's just another protracted civil war between a dictator and a tribal rebel group. In other words- a story that could apply to pretty much every other sub-Saharan country at some point in the last 20 years.

It's time for us to de-escalate this singular obsession with Darfur. It should be replaced with a focus on Congo/Zaire- which is the worst problem on the continent right now.

-- icemilkcoffee
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Blaming Chad for Sudan's brutality and tension is absurd. First, if African nations receive a "get out of jail free because it's not my fault" card because they have an unstable country on one of their borders, how many of these nations could be held responsible for its conduct and treatment of its citizens?

Second, it might be oh-so-very-British to suggest that a democratic Chad is the answer to Sudan's turmoil and Chad's own woes -- but what about the very real possibility that a democratic Chad might be more weak, unstable, prone to meddling by stronger neighbors, and unable to control its border region than the government Chad has now?

Third, if right-thinking Westerners want peace in Darfur, are they willing to support Obama for engaging American troops in a third war? Because the idea that Sudan will clean up its act without being forced to is about as realistic as the idea that FIFA was going to let Ireland play in the World Cup because Thierry Henry admitted the handball.

It's easy to preach peace, love and understanding -- but sometimes the only way to put a bully in his place is to stand up to him. Like it or not, we live in a dangerous world. The OAU doesn't have the stomach to intervene. My take is that unless the US is willing to send in the marines those old conflicts will keep flaring unless a structural solution like partition or resettlement is imposed.

Maybe the blame should be placed where it belongs. France props up the current Chadian President and intervened at least once when the rebels were on the verge of over-running NDjamena. Despots like Deby understand self-interest, not democratic reform. The rebels promise elections if they succeed the next time out. Problem is, rejected by the West, they find support and arms flowing from Sudan which is interested in an unstable Chad.

No easy answers. But negotiations and accords don't have much of a track record in this part of the continent. Could be a show of force -- direct or by proxy -- is the better or the only path to longer term stability.

-- NGOURI
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