What a Difference a Year MakesHow last night's election results were bad for Obama.

This piece was originally published on Election Night, Nov. 3, and updated on Nov. 4, after the results for New York's 23^rd district were in.

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Here's more bad news for Obama and Democrats in 2010. Turnout for Democrats wasn't very good. Everyone knew that the Obama Democrats of 2008 wouldn't turn out. But the president visited both New Jersey and Virginia at least in part to help turn out the Democratic base. The number of young voters and African-American voters, both of whom were such a strong part of Obama's coalition, were down in both contests. In Virginia, African-American turnout was 15 percent, down from 20 percent in 2008. Voters aged 18 to 29 made up only 10 percent of the vote, down over 50 percent from last year.

And here's why turnout matters to the unfinished health care debate. If Democrats start to think that Obama can't help them—or at least protect them—in next year's election, they'll feel less compelled to vote with him. They won't take his promises to give them cover if they have to take a hard vote. They'll pay particular attention to the New Jersey experience. As Corzine told Politico: "One of the reasons that President Obama came in, was to excite the base." Obama made five campaign stops for Corzine in the last few months. This past Sunday, he made two stops to bring out his most ardent supporters.

The president can explain that he has more influence over issues in the national conversation that will be part of the 2010 races—and that he wasn't on the ballot anywhere in 2009. But members of Congress are a nervous bunch. This will make them more so.

Any partisan who wanted to turn away from the election results could find solace in the By the People, which aired last night on HBO. It told the story of Obama's historic election one year ago (almost to the day). But the images of Obama's promises of change seemed disconnected from the familiar small politics of this year's election cycle—and the big one to come next year. The change hasn't come. Perhaps the more helpful message was playing just a few channels away on PBS. On Nova, a program traced the story of the evolution of man more than 3.2 million years ago. The message: Change takes time.

Update, Nov. 4:

Democrat Bill Owens won in New York's 23^rd district, becoming the first of his party to hold that seat since the Civil War. This was a defeat for populist conservatives who had backed independent conservative Doug Hoffman but perhaps good news for Republicans who want to keep the party broad by allowing candidates who match their constituencies rather than the ideological tests of movement conservatives. Newt Gingrich argued that by purging the party of candidates who didn't agree (as ultimately happened with the Republican in this race), it would guarantee Obama's re-election and make Nancy Pelosi speaker for life because the pure conservative candidate wouldn't be able to win in more moderate districts.

The win was also good news for Joe Biden. He made a last-minute trip to the district to campaign for Owens. Some thought it was risky. The opposition mocked him. Former Sen. Fred Thompson cracked: "You know, the vice president's job is to attend funerals. Maybe he came a day early." Biden mocked right back, taking on Hoffman-backer Sarah Palin during his visit. Talking about energy policy, he said, "The fact of the matter is, Sarah Palin thinks the answer to energy is 'drill, baby, drill.' It's a lot more complicated, Sarah."

Palin was undaunted. On her Facebook page she wrote: "The race for New York's 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010. ... To the tireless grassroots patriots who worked so hard in that race and to future citizen-candidates like Doug, please remember Reagan's words of encouragement after his defeat in 1976: 'The cause goes on. Don't get cynical because look at yourselves and what you were willing to do, and recognize that there are millions and millions of Americans out there that want what you want, that want it to be that way, that want it to be a shining city on a hill.' The cause goes on."

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John Dickerson is Slate's chief political correspondent and author of On Her Trail. He can be reached at . Follow him on Twitter.

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