
Pollster, Heal ThyselfTrying to make sense of the public's contradictory feelings about health care reform.
Posted Monday, Sept. 14, 2009, at 8:12 PM ETHow did President Obama do in his big health care speech last week? Let's judge using the White House's measuring stick. Before the speech, aides pointed to a few key goals. They wanted to inform people who were confused, persuade those with insurance that they would benefit, explain that the president's plan would not increase the deficit, and reassure seniors they wouldn't suffer.
Sounds simple enough. Unfortunately, there's no way to assess Obama's performance without using polls—and three polls taken after his speech show mixed, if not contradictory, results.
Good News: A CBS poll shows that the president's approval rating on the issue of health care increased 12 points to 52 percent. When asked whether the president had clearly explained his plans for health care reform, 42 percent said yes—an improvement of nine percentage points. So he gets good marks on clearing up the confusion.
Among those who actually watched, the results were even better: Some 58 percent said he had been clear, and 60 percent liked what they heard. Thus we have some evidence of the president's ability to make impressions on those who actually hear his message. He'll be talking a lot about health care in the coming weeks, and this suggests that if people hear him, he has the opportunity to win their support. Obama also rallied Democrats: 85 percent approve of his handling of the issue, according to CBS. In an ABC/Washington Post poll, 88 percent of liberal Democrats support the reform plan as is, and 81 percent still support it even if a government-run portion is not included.
Middling News: According to the ABC/Post poll, the president also seems to have made some headway in convincing people that their insurance won't change. Half of the insured now see that it's possible legislation would allow individuals to keep their coverage without changes, up from 37 percent in June. The president still has work to do, though: In a separate question, majorities still think changes to the health care system would hurt or not improve their insurance coverage, their costs, and their overall care.
Bad News: The president could not persuade even those who listened to his speech that there was something in health reform for them. Many analysts believe that unless people believe their lives will improve, they'll offer only lukewarm support for the president's plan, even though they may support the broader notion of reforming the system. In the CBS poll, 31 percent of those who watched the speech said the reform would benefit them, only a five-point increase from before the speech. Some 27 percent thought the reforms would hurt them, and 39 percent thought they'd have no effect. So about two-thirds of those who heard the president make the case weren't convinced.
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