
Clash of the ClericsIran's ayatollahs fight over the future of the Islamic republic.
Posted Wednesday, June 24, 2009, at 5:25 PM ETRead more from Slate's coverage of the Iranian election and its aftermath.
The demonstrations that broke out across Iran after the disputed election of June 12 seem to have eased off for the moment. The deep grievances that triggered their outbreak remain and have been compounded by anger at the ferocity of the state's repression. At the root of the troubles is the very question of the future of the Islamic republic. For pious Muslims, there is no single vision of an Islamic state nor of how to achieve it. Equally, there is no agreement in Iran, even among the believers, as to how their republic should change. However, there does seem to be consensus that change is necessary, a fact highlighted by the enormous outpourings of public support for both reformist and conservative electoral candidates in the week before June 12 and by the exuberance of televised debates between presidential hopefuls.
The options for change in Iran should not be understood as a choice between democratic Western-style secularism on one hand and a military dictatorship in the name of Islam on the other. There are many options on the table, and most Iranians seek evolutionary rather than revolutionary change, to paraphrase journalist Roxana Saberi. The ultimate realization of this evolutionary change will, of course, depend on the ability of the proponents of differing visions to triumph over their opponents. It should be recognized that the ideological vision of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and its implementation through the corrupt election of June 12 does not represent a continuation of the status quo but is itself a new trajectory. Ahmadinejad's supporters have labeled his power grab as revolutionary, describing his election as Iran's third revolution. (They consider the first to be that of 1979 and the hostage crisis the second.)
Ahmadinejad's vision owes a large debt to his spiritual "guide," Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, who has been satirically caricatured as a crocodile in the Iranian press. The cleric is a hard-line conservative committed to a literal interpretation of the Quran and is a fierce opponent of Iran's reform movement, so much so that he allegedly issued a fatwa sanctioning cheating in the recent elections. Mesbah-Yazdi and his Haghani Circle of followers reject even the limited elements of popular sovereignty, such as presidential elections, of today's republic and demand more Islamic government. Despite the influence of the Haghani Circle on the president and within elements of the Revolutionary Guard, Mesbah-Yazdi lacks widespread accreditation from other mullahs. Senior clerics have not yet recognized him as a grand ayatollah, or marja.
An alternative vision comes from the Association of Combatant Clerics. This group, populated by many of the founding fathers of the Islamic republic and some "veterans" of the hostage crisis, now advocates a reformist vision. Mohammad Khatami, president from 1997 to 2005, is its most famous member. After Khatami withdrew from the election campaign in March, he endorsed Mir Hossein Mousavi. The association has expressed concern at the "massive engineering of votes" in the recent election and has openly called for pro-Mousavi rallies.
Other important voices have joined Ahmadinejad's critics: Grand Ayatollahs Yousef Sanei and Lotfollah Safi-Golpaygani have both cast doubt on the election results, as has Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri. Montazeri, once Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's chosen successor, has been the republic's bête noire since he openly questioned Iran's human rights record in 1989 and then challenged Ali Khamenei's credentials to replace Khomeini as supreme leader. All three grand ayatollahs and their supporters have questioned the election results, and in doing so they have challenged the authority of the supreme leader.
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The Revolutionary Guard and the Basij operate under Khamenei's sanction. This is the system which, by appearances, Khomeini put in place in 1979, the irony being lost on him that it mimicked the rule of the Shah fairly closely. The loophole for reformers is in whether the system is set up for security forces to swear loyalty to the office of Supreme Leader or to the man (Khamenei) occupying it. If the former is true, and if Rafsanjani can succeed in deposing Khamenei, as "rumor" suggests he may be trying to do, their power could potentially be co-opted to support the reformers.
-- Oenomaus
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