MoneygolfWhat can stat geeks tell us about what it takes to win on the links?

I can't disagree with the data that says "everybody gets better—they hit it closer—when they are closer to the green," but that doesn't fully answer the question of how to play your second shot on a Par 5.

Let's say your drive leaves you 260yds to the green for your second shot. Is it better to rip a 3 wood just short of the green, or play an 8-iron that leaves you a full wedge into the green? Well, the data indicate that you'll hit your 3rd shot much closer to the hole from 40yds away than you would with a full wedge from 120 yards. HOWEVER, it doesn't address of the ease of playing that second shot.

If I play the lay-up shot with an 8-iron, I may execute the shot properly 80% of the time. If I try to hit the 3 wood, that percentage drops drastically, and opens the door to a skull or a chunk, or a big yawning slice that flies OB.

I wonder which play yields the greatest returns over the long run.

-- DarkHelmet1976
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"High handicappers are harmed most by the few absurdly bad shots in each round, like, say the wedge you skull 40 feet sideways."

So true, in my effort to become a bogey golfer, I've had many problems eliminating bad drives, ball tops and bad chips where I don't hit it more than 2 feet. Normally, I hit the drive straight, putt in about 2 strokes, and hit good approaches. But I can say 4 or 5 bad shots can add something like 10 strokes to my score.

-- kevins514
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