You Can Live Without Apple's New iPhoneBut it's getting harder to live without the App Store.
Posted Monday, June 8, 2009, at 8:48 PM ET
I didn't go to Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday expecting a revolutionary new iPhone. That's a good thing, because I didn't see one. Instead, Apple unveiled what folks in the computer industry call a "speed bump": The new iPhone is nearly identical to the old iPhone, except it's faster. It also records videos and understands voice commands—two features that many other cell phones have long boasted—and it includes a digital compass, which makes its maps program much smarter. Don't get me wrong, I'm not upset about any of that stuff. My iPhone, like any computer, sometimes slows to a crawl, and Apple says that the new iPhone 3G S is twice as fast, on average, as the old one. (The S stands for "speed.") The phone goes on sale on June 18, and I confess I'm one of the suckers who'll stand in line to buy it. But not without a bit of hesitation.
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StumbleUponThe mobile phone market has lately become one of the most innovative corners of the tech business. The Palm Pre—with its stylish new operating system, its elegant design, and its amazing wireless battery charger—certainly seems worthy of my attention, as do the many phones based on Google's Android OS that are expected to be released this year. What's more, after a couple years of using an iPhone, there's a lot I hate about it—AT&T's terrible cellular network, for instance, and the cumbersome way it switches between different programs.
Still, what I saw on Monday cemented my idea that the iPhone is becoming nearly impossible for any other mobile gadget to beat. That's not because the device itself is perfect. It isn't. Over the last year, though, the iPhone has attracted something that none of its rivals can match: a devoted following of developers who are building amazing programs for the device. There are now more than 50,000 applications available in the iPhone's built-in App Store, and Apple says that the pace at which developers are adding programs is accelerating. None of Apple's competitors comes close to these numbers. Android is in second place with 5,000 apps, and the Nokia and BlackBerry stores have just over 1,000 apps each. If you buy a Pre, brace yourself for a comically small number of add-ons—today you'll find just 18 apps in Palm's online store.
Earlier this year, Apple unveiled version 3.0 of the iPhone's operating system; the software will be available for all iPhones and iPod Touches on June 16. During the past few months, app developers have been creating programs that take advantage of the new operating system's features, and on Monday Apple invited several companies to show off what they've built. The demos were amazing, an innovative and exciting counterpoint to Apple's same-y new hardware. Through these programs, the iPhone becomes something like a universal remote—a device that spices up all kinds of everyday interactions.
Consider auto-sharing service Zipcar's new app: When you need wheels, load up the program to find available cars displayed on a map around you. You can pick a car you like and reserve it right from the phone. That's when the real fun begins. As you approach the Zipcar lot, you find two buttons on your phone: honk and unlock. Yes, your iPhone can now double as your car keys. (I guess that means if you lose it, you're doubly screwed.)
Airstrip Technologies, a development house that makes medical apps, showed off a more serious version of the same concept. The company has created a program that allows physicians to review their patients' vital signs from anywhere—your doctor can get a live picture of the pulsating waves of your cardiac rhythm, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and other stats. There are many more such programs: Johnson & Johnson is making an iPhone-enabled diabetes monitor that lets people study their blood glucose levels on the go; Pasco makes scientific probes that hook up to the phone and let kids have fun in science class; and two companies, Line 6 and Planet Waves, have built an app that lets guitarists control their amps and MIDI guitars from their phones.
Demos of these last two apps didn't quite work on stage at the WWDC, which is uncharacteristic for Apple events. (Apple reps assured us everything had worked perfectly in rehearsal.) Fortunately, the audience was composed mainly of developers, folks who were willing to give their fellow programmers the benefit of the doubt, and who were effusive in their applause. Perhaps the most popular app on display was Apple's own Find My iPhone, which does exactly that by making your phone ring even if you left it in silent mode. (So I guess you're not at risk of losing your car keys after all!) The app, which is available only to subscribers of Apple's MobileMe service, also shows your phone's physical location on a Web map, and it lets you erase your data remotely if it's been stolen.
Is it fair to compare the riches of the iPhone App Store with its rivals' offerings? After all, the iPhone store has been open since July 2008; the Android shop opened a few months after that, and the Palm Pre just came out this weekend. Won't those other stores eventually catch up with Apple's offerings?
I doubt it. The software industry is a network-effects business—as developers create more programs for the iPhone, it attracts more customers, which in turn makes it even more attractive to developers. The developers have flocked to the device even though Apple's terms are arguably more onerous than those of other stores. The Android store, for instance, exercises no editorial control over the apps that make it to the store. Apple, on the other hand, has been known to boot apps for what seem to be completely arbitrary reasons. But Apple has also given developers deeper access into key parts of the phone's OS. It now lets programmers build apps that access the phone's built-in Google Maps, and it lets them hook up programs to peripherals (like those MIDI guitars). The one thing still missing: background processing. This means that you can only run one third-party app at a time—so you can't listen to, say, music from the Pandora app while you're reading your e-mail. In time, this might change.
There is, of course, an irony in Apple's success. For years, Apple fans claimed that the company made the best PCs in the world, hands down. Nevertheless, it was hard to argue with the fact that Windows PCs simply ran more programs. Now Apple is in the position once occupied by Microsoft. Over the next few years, Palm, Research in Motion, Nokia, Sony, and others are sure to create some transcendent mobile devices. But the hardware hardly matters anymore. How is anyone going to compete with all these amazing apps?
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We are all familiar with the law of diminishing returns. That first slice of pizza when we are hungry tastes great, the eleventh slice, not so much. There is, however, the law of increasing returns. One fax machine in the world is useless, gains a tiny amount of usefulness with two, and is very handy when a billion or so are about the place.
iPhone apps have done something unique. They have gone from the law of increasing returns to the law of decreasing returns. While many developers were attracted to the iPhone because there are so many developers, the number has now exceeded the ability of the ecosystem to handle the load. More developers aren't better and the system is so crowded only a few can survive. When one searches for an app, one gets SO MANY responses, particularly with iTunes sad little search engine, that only a very, very small percentage of the apps are visible. How does even a moderately well-financed developer make his stand out and reach the top ten list so it can be seen? Being picked for an Apple commercial helps, but, beyond that, they are screwed.
Thus, moving to the Palm Pre might be the answer. Much, much easier to stand out in a field of 19 (there are 18 and if one joins, the total would be 19), than 50,001. Programming for either is not vastly different. Why join the crowd and be lost when you can stand out with even a mediocre effort?
I am a big fan of Apple. I use only Macs. I whined for 174 straight days for an iPhone until my friends bought me one just to shut me up. I love it. I wouldn't change to the Palm, even though I worked for the company years ago and like a stylus better than my fat, chubby fingers. However, if I were a developer, I'd be making Pre apps as fast as I could.
-- MacAdvisor
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Interesting theory. Let's see how it shakes out.
-- Farhad Manjoo
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I'm a developer of Android apps.
While the article may be technically correct that the Android Market launched last year, at that time only free downloads were supported. The Android Market did not start supporting paid apps until early this year. So it's not quite right to compare the two. The iPhone market has at least a six month jump on Android.
But I think Android is poised to muscle the iPhone out of dominance over the next year, especially by luring away app devs, for a number of reasons.
1) Android is open-source and can run on a variety of platforms, and a truckload of new phones sporting Android are coming out (between 18-20 new models by the end of this year)
2) Apps in Android are much more dev-friendly to write than ones for the iPhone. Android apps are written in Java, with layouts handled in XML. iPhone apps are written in, what? Objective C.
3) The Android Developer Challenge II (http://code.google.com/android/adc/). Google is luring devs with about $2 million in total prize money. Once the market builds to a certain threshold, these sorts of contests won't be necessary, but in a world where everyone wants to write iPhone apps, it's a brilliant way to coax mobile devs to the platform.
4) As the article points out, it's much quicker and easier to post apps to the Android Market. It's a $25 registration fee (compared to $99 for the iPhone store). There is no review process (apps are posted immediately)...this is actually good and bad, because any moderation is after the fact, and it means a lot of crap will initially be posted, but in general it's very good for a dev. And Google takes the same cut as Apple (30%).
Of course I could be wrong, and of course I'm not unbiased, but I think we're going to see a shift in the smartphone market this year, and I think more and more devs will be drawn to the platform because of the reasons listed above, and the growing potential for profits. There are no comparable Trism or iShoot stories for the Android Market, but a dev can already make a decent return on their programming time (I'm doing about as well as some of the moderately successful devs on the iPhone market, from what I've read), even with Android still in its infancy.
-- Polyclef
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