HOME / foreigners: Opinions about events beyond our borders.

Campaign for the Common ManUnderstanding Indian election politics.

By Miranda KennedyPosted Thursday, April 30, 2009, at 6:51 AM ET

(Continued from page 1)

RSS

India's middle class may set the agenda in the media and in Washington, but the poor dominate Indian elections. That's because voter participation is highest among the rural, poor, and low caste. These voters are even more likely to participate in local elections—upward of 80 percent turn out for village council races—a stark contrast with the United States and other advanced democracies, where many more people vote for president than for city council.

Indian democracy "defies what was once considered a law of political participation in the world, the higher up you are in the socio-economic hierarchy, the more you participate in politics and voting," says New Delhi-based political scientist Yogendra Yadav. Because "the poor vote as much, if not more, than the urban middle classes," the global recession barely rates among this year's election issues in India.

Although India has been opening up to the world for almost two decades, many sectors remain sheltered from globalization. Partly by protectionist design, and partly by default, India has failed to transfer its agricultural success onto the world market. India's inability to gain the necessary efficiencies to export its goods has been deeply frustrating to international investors, but it has also protected Indian farmers from the contracting global economy. Although the recession has slowed India's overall growth, rural Indians aren't yet suffering the way Chinese factory workers are.

In many ways, life has changed little for the masses of India's poor in the six decades since India won its independence from Britain. Still, there are indications that rural life has improved in the last decade, thanks to government investments in education and infrastructure. In 2004, the Indian government allocated more than $2 billion to improve basic services in India's villages. An employment-guarantee act helped bring money into rural areas by guaranteeing 100 days of work to every household that needs it. India recently announced a stimulus plan to try to meet some of its development needs, like improving schools, roads, and power plants.

Indian politicians learned an important lesson during the 2004 national elections, when the Hindu nationalist BJP Party campaigned with the slogan "India Shining," hoping to capitalize on India's IT boom. The rival Congress Party, which promised to take care of the "aam aadmi," or common man, gave them a thorough routing

The outcome of this year's election, which will be announced on May 16, will turn on which party managed to speak most effectively to the aam aadmi—the Congress Party recycled the phrase for this year's election. Concern that it would again misjudge the concerns of the poor forced the BJP to abandon its pet issue, terrorism, even in the wake of what many refer to as "India's 9/11." Less than six months ago, horrifying attacks in Mumbai forced the ruling Congress Party to admit police and intelligence failures.

Yet BJP attempts to whip up anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim fervor completely failed to take root among the poor, who, like Radha, are more concerned with local issues like schools and roads than about India's sadly routine terror incidents. India's Facebook-savvy minority has organized activism around the Mumbai attacks, but the elite don't win elections.

Neither of India's two major national parties, Congress and BJP, is expected to secure a majority in the election. India's next government is likely to be another shaky coalition, and Mayawati may emerge as the kingmaker. If an untouchable is elected prime minister, it would be a milestone. It might also launch a new era of bitter caste-based politics in India. Just ask Radha.