
Party in FNL land! NBC and DirecTV announced a deal on Monday for two more seasons, 13 episodes each. But wait—aren't Matt, Tim, Tyra, Lyla, and Landry all graduating? This should be interesting.
More cause for celebration: Gregg Easterbrook, formerly Slate's "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" columnist, thoroughly vindicates Coach Taylor's decisions to go for it on fourth down a couple of weeks ago against Arnette Meade and to go for the two-point conversion last week. Gregg writes:
SuperCoach Eric Taylor went for it on fourth and 7 from the opponents' 38, leading by three, 50 seconds remaining, opponent of out timeouts. This is a classic maroon-zone tactical dilemma—too far for a field goal attempt, too close to punt. Getting a first down wins the game. Punting probably results in a touchback, bringing the ball back to the 20, and then Arnett Meade must move 60 yards in 45 seconds for a decent kick to tie. A failed pass on fourth down (given that the clock would stop on change of possession) places the ball at the 38, meaning Arnett Meade must still move 40 yards in 45 seconds for a decent kick to tie—still unlikely to happen. Thus a failed fourth down try doesn't really surrender that much. Most coaches do the conservative thing to avoid blame, so most coaches would punt in this situation. But the risk of going for it is not that high; the Miami Dolphins clinched a playoff birth this season by going for it in a very similar maroon zone situation.
As to the question of going for the win rather than a PAT for overtime: Pro coaches usually kick in this situation, but high-school coaches usually go for the win partly because high-school kids tend to collapse of fatigue in overtime. About 60 percent of high-school attempts for two are successful, so going for two can be a higher percentage decision than the 50/50 chance of going to overtime. Also, Texas public high schools use the NCAA overtime format in which teams alternate possessions at the opposing 25. In pouring rain, it's hard to gain 25 yards. The coach knows it could be a multiple-session overtime in which his kids would tire and anything could happen. Three yards to win or lose is a decent gamble.
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