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Our Fearless PoliticsFor now, fear is gone from Washington. What will happen when it returns?

By John DickersonPosted Monday, Dec. 15, 2008, at 1:27 PM ET

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Washington veterans, intimately familiar with the immutable laws of politics, assume that Obama's new approach won't last. Eventually, they think, he'll come up against an immovable object and he'll have to start putting actual heat on his opponents—or pressure on his allies.

And there are already signs that niceness won't cut it. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell* didn't support the car bailout despite presidential pressure—from a fellow Republican no less—and the threat of getting blamed for further endangering the economy and ruining American car manufacturers. He's not the kind of fellow who is going to cave to Obama. Moreover, Republicans can't just agree with Obama all the time, or party activists will get even more cranky. Soon enough, Republicans will stop producing flaccid attacks that only help Obama and start to redefine themselves, and that will mean clashes. Sometimes that will lead to clashes meant purely for public show.

Obama may have to stop following the guidance in Doris Kearns Goodwin's Team of Rivals, says one Democratic veteran, and start heeding something closer to Machiavelli's advice that "since love and fear can hardly exist together, if we must choose between them, it is far safer to be feared than loved."

Obama's most powerful weapon is that he comes into office with an enormous mandate. An astounding 67 percent of respondents in a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll say they have positive feelings about him (45 percent say very positive)—a jump of 10 points from pre-election surveys. And the public is patient. Despite some recent press coverage, there is no revolt in the left wing of his party. Obama will be feared in Washington because he is loved in the country. "It's like gunboat diplomacy," one Washington veteran told me. Opponents surrender or give up the fight because they don't want to risk being on the wrong side of public opinion.

The question for Obama is not likely to be whether he uses fear to govern but how he does. Maybe he will choose to obliterate Republican opposition by shaming them by name and turning the public against them. But that carries a risk. His popularity is based, in large part, on the promise that he'll make good on his pledge to be a post-partisan change agent. If he looks like too much of a partisan—or aides look too rough acting on his behalf—he'll damage his brand. That's why he barely inserted himself into the Georgia Senate race or the ongoing recount battle in the Minnesota Senate race.

The first inklings about Obama's new approach will appear shortly after he's inaugurated. He will almost certainly be presented with a stimulus package within the first days of his administration. Working out the details of a $1 trillion package rushed through Congress will require the kind of serious deal-making and maneuvering that new presidents usually don't have to engage in so soon. Obama faces risks no matter what he does—the risk of failing to implement his policies if he doesn't knock some heads or the risk of tarnishing his standing if he does. It could be paralyzing—but only if he gives in to fear.

Correction, Dec. 15, 2008: This article originally misidentified Mitch McConnell as the Senate majority leader. He is the minority leader. (Return to the corrected sentence.)