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Loud Voice, Tiny StickTrying to make sense of Condoleezza Rice's latest statement.

By Fred KaplanPosted Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2008, at 5:39 PM ET

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Rice was asked about this possibility—that an agreement with Poland now might seem to prove the Russians right—during the same airborne press conference in which she made her remark about military power. Her reply was curious. "Well, quite the contrary," she began, noting that the system is intended to shoot down Iranian missiles. Then she added, "But what we are saying, and what I am going to do by going to Poland, is to demonstrate that the kind of language that Russia uses about Poland isn't tolerable. When people reach out in a hand of friendship, it's really not responsible language to threaten them with a nuclear attack."

The middle sentence in this reply ("But what we are saying …") certainly sounds like she sees the missile-defense agreement as a signal to Russia—which suggests first that military power is an instrument for sending signals in the 21^st century, and second that the agreement is, at least in part, directed at Russia.

As for her next sentence ("When people reach out …"), it certainly was irresponsible for a Russian general to warn Poles that Moscow might launch a nuclear attack against missile-defense sites installed on their territory. But the first clause of that sentence is puzzling: Who extended "a hand of friendship" to whom?

In any case, if Bush were interested in winding down the crisis so that Russian troops might pull out of Georgia, or at least let Western aid and reconstruction funds flow in, it might have been a shrewd "signal" to delay the missile-defense agreement—and to point out, behind the scenes, that he was delaying it—even while restating the West's commitment to the security of Poland (a NATO member, after all) and sending Warsaw conventional air-defense missiles. (Delaying an accord wouldn't matter, as the BMD interceptors in question wouldn't be fully tested, much less ready to deploy, for several years anyway.) Pointedly not signing the accord might have reinforced Bush's long-standing message that he is not threatening Russia—that, in fact, he's going out of his way to avoid threatening Russia—even as he restated concerns about Georgia's fate and NATO's cohesiveness.

Again, that might have been a smart thing to do if Bush wanted to wind down the crisis with Russia. If he wanted to escalate the crisis, he would have done what he sent Rice to do—sign the agreement in Warsaw. Does that mean that he does want to escalate the crisis? It's unclear. If he does, he doesn't seem to have laid out the next move. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has firmly stated that the administration is not going to get involved in a military conflict. The U.S. Air Force has flown C-17 cargo planes to Georgian airfields. The U.S. Navy has sent ships to Georgian ports. But here, too, officials have made it clear that the ships and planes are there strictly to provide humanitarian aid. The U.S. military personnel will defend their own assets, but their mission does not even include defending the airfields or ports, much less helping the Georgian army beat back the Russian bear.

The more likely explanation of what Bush and Rice are up to is that they don't know what to do. Not just in Georgia but around the world, they are floundering. Bush suddenly turns pragmatic diplomat with the North Koreans (though only after they successfully test an atomic bomb), but he remains ideologically opposed to negotiations with the Syrians and Iranians. He urges the Israelis and Palestinians to talk, but he gives them no incentives, nothing to talk about. He and his aides and ambassadors tell the Russians their behavior in Georgia is "unacceptable," that they've "crossed the line," but no consequences are spelled out, in part because there aren't any good ones available.

Great powers, and even not-so-great shrewd powers, are known to speak softly and carry big sticks (or offer big carrots). The Bush administration is talking very loudly and dangling nothing.