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China Goes for (All of) the GoldEconomists predict whether the host country will rule the Beijing Olympics.

By Daniel GrossPosted Thursday, Aug. 7, 2008, at 6:17 PM ET

Check out Slate's complete coverage of the Beijing Games.

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In 2004, Daniel Gross wrote up economists' predictions of who would win gold in Athens. Those projections, it turned out, weren't so hot. Read all of Slate's coverage of China and the Olympics.

In addition, predictions about the Olympics are difficult because of the nature of the Games. The differences separating medal-winners from nonmedal-winners are often counted in hundredths of seconds or fractions of inches. And myriad factors on the ground that have nothing to do with economics can impact the outcome of events: a last-minute injury, a runner clipping a single hurdle, or a swimmer turning in a once-in-a-lifetime performance. Finally, as I noted in 2004, I think the models continue to ignore another economic factor that enables some countries to perform above expectations. Ultimately, Olympic success revolves around a nation's ability to attract, retain, and develop human capital to its fullest potential. Historically, no country in the world has managed to do this quite as well as the United States. When the U.S. team enters the Olympic stadium in Beijing on Friday, distance runner Lopez Lomong will carry the flag. Seven years ago, he was one of the lost boys of Sudan, living in a refugee camp in Kenya. Today, he's a U.S. citizen and a contender for a medal.

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Daniel Gross is the Moneybox columnist for Slate and the business columnist for Newsweek. You can e-mail him at . He is the author of Pop! Why Bubbles Are Great for the Economy.

Photograph of the 2008 Olympic gold medal by David Hecker/AFP/Getty Images.

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