HOME / five-ring circus: Scenes from the Olympics.

Summer Olympics Disaster Guide: Opening Ceremony EditionThe Olympics are all set to kick off. What could possibly go wrong?

By Lucy Morrow Caldwell, Kara Hadge, Nayeli Rodriguez, and Derek ThompsonPosted Thursday, Aug. 7, 2008, at 11:01 AM ET

Check out Slate's complete coverage of the Beijing Games.

One month ago, we reported on every possible thing that could go wrong at the Beijing Games: rampant pollution, a television blackout, an uprising by Uighur extremists. Now that the Olympics are set to kick off, we've added updates to all of our crisis scenarios and reordered the list with the biggest potential disasters at the top. On our ranking scale, one torch is no big deal; 10 torches is a potential catastrophe. Print out this handy guide, and be prepared for the worst.

RSS

Related in Slate

Rachael Larimore offered suggestions to get readers in the mood for the start of the Games. Tom Scocca, writing from Beijing, said something in the air made him nervous about the Olympics back in December. Jacob Leibenluft wondered if world leaders would boycott the opening ceremony. Anne Applebaum said the Olympics would provide an ideal stage for political protests. Shmuel Rosner said we shouldn't be surprised to see the Darfur debate rear its head this August.

Scenario: The official Web site of the Beijing Olympics says, "Terrorism, in particular, poses the biggest threat" to this year's Games. More than 500 detailed security plans have supposedly been mapped out, and one Communist Party official announced that Chinese authorities have already raided a "terrorist gang" with plans for an Olympics takedown. While al-Qaida is a natural suspect for sabotage, keep an eye on Uighur extremists, Muslims in Western China who have become increasingly active in recent months.
Chance it could happen: 10 percent
Scary quote: The U.S. State Department has warned Americans that there is a "heightened risk that extremist groups will conduct terrorist acts within China in the near future."
Update, Aug. 7: There have been two major attacks in China in the last month. The Turkistan Islamic Movement took responsibility for bombs on two buses in the southern city of Kunming that killed two people on July 21. Chinese police, however, say the bombings aren't the work of terrorists. In the province of Xinjiang, homeland of the Uighur separatists, 16 police officers were killed when two grenades were thrown into a police station. China has said that Uighur separatists, possibly linked to al-Qaida, are responsible for the attack.

Scenario: The world's top marathon runner won't compete in the Olympic marathon because of concerns about Beijing's toxic air. Pollution worries have also led more than 20 countries to move their pre-Olympic training to Japan. But nobody knows quite what to expect in August. At worst, droves of athletes could make an eleventh-hour exodus on account of not being able to breathe. At the very least, the thick air could make 200 meters feel like a steeplechase. So far, though, reports out of China point to vastly improving air quality. Beijing's radical anti-pollution measures—shutting down all chemical plants, freezing construction projects, ordering half of the cars off the road—point out what's possible when you have tight state control.
Chance it could happen: 90 percent
Scary quote: "The magnitude of the pollution in Beijing is not something we know how to deal with. It's a foreign environment. It's like feeding an athlete poison," said a respiratory expert assisting American marathoners.
Update, Aug. 7: Millions of Beijing residents have been forced to stop driving on account of a partial government ban on cars. The ban seems to be working: Pollution levels in the city have decreased dramatically. Mother Nature hasn't been as cooperative, though. Scant rainfall and weak winds have allowed a fog of pollutants to linger over Beijing. The Australian swimming coach has even complained about smog that's somehow managed to creep inside the Olympic swimming venue.

Scenario: International concern for Chinese repression in Tibet has already sparked protests in San Francisco, London, and Paris, where the Olympic torch was briefly extinguished. The Chinese government has cracked down violently on demonstrations in recent months, and numerous world leaders have responded by boycotting the opening ceremony. The worst-case scenario, as seen earlier this year: The Chinese government goes overboard trying to squelch demonstrations and kills more than 100 pro-Tibetan activists.
Chance it could happen: 70 percent
Scary quote: "There are people all over the world who are Tibet supporters, and this is just the first of a cascading waterfall of actions," said American Shannon Service, who was expelled from China after staging an anti-Olympic protest on Mount Everest.
Update, Aug. 7: Nepali police arrested and detained more than 300 anti-China Tibetan protesters this week. China has said three public parks in Beijing may be used for protests as long as the demonstrations don't harm the country's "national interests."

Scenario: More stringent visa policies put in place in the last few months have already hurt tourism in Beijing. The new rules require certain travelers to show invitation letters, airline tickets, and proof of hotel arrangements before applying for entrance into China. A foreign ministry spokesman has stated that these policies reflect China's concern for security during the Olympics. If high-profile visitors, journalists, or athletes can't get into the country, though, the bad PR might drown out any potential security gains.
Chance it could happen: 90 percent
Scary quote: "Business is so bleak. ... Since May, very few foreigners have checked in. Our occupancy rate has dropped by 40 percent," one hotel operator told the New York Times.
Update, Aug. 7: American speedskater Joey Cheek, a former Winter Olympian, had his visa revoked this week by the Chinese government. Cheek is the head of Team Darfur, a group of athletes trying to raise awareness about China's role in Sudan. Also, five out of the six mainland cities hosting events for the Olympics have stopped issuing business visas until after the Games conclude.

Scenario: What if everything goes off without a hitch in Beijing but no one is watching? Television-rights holders have complained that the Chinese bureaucracy is making it impossible to plan their coverage, with broadcasting equipment reportedly being tied up for security reasons. Even if the cameras do arrive, it's highly unlikely that China will allow live coverage from Tiananmen Square or the Forbidden City. Then again, NBC paid $1.5 billion for broadcast rights to the 2006 and 2008 Olympics—that's a big incentive to make sure that millions don't tune in to see nothing but static.
Chance it could happen: 50 percent
Scary quote: "We are two weeks away from putting equipment on a shipment, and we have no clearance to operate or to enter the country or a frequency allocation," said Sandy MacIntyre, director of news for AP Television News.
Update, Aug. 7: The Chinese government will allow live broadcasts from the streets of Beijing. Though cameras will be permitted in Tiananmen Square for six hours each day, Chinese officials have banned media organizations from conducting interviews there. In the meantime, Internet censorship has become the latest battleground. The BBC's Chinese language edition and Amnesty International, among other Web sites that had been censored, were opened to reporters last week.

Scenario: The U.S. Olympic team, among other delegations, has raised concerns about the safety of the food in the Olympic Village. In response to a New York Times report that the U.S. team was bringing its own beef, chicken, and pork to Beijing, a Chinese official said that outside food would not be allowed in athletes' lodgings. China might come to regret that decision if a sprinter is seen heaving on the starting line.
Chance it could happen: 50 percent
Scary quote: "We had it tested, and it was so full of steroids that we never could have given it to athletes. They all would have tested positive," said an American caterer, explaining the potential problem with serving the U.S. team Chinese chicken breasts.
Update, Aug. 7: Amid concerns about the safety of the nation's food supply, the Chinese government has placed factories and other food facilities under video surveillance during the Olympics. Because high temperatures in Hong Kong could lead to food poisoning, the Olympic Village there will not be serving raw or undercooked foods such as sushi and oysters.