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Grading the Candidates' War SpeechesObama's was flawed; McCain's is a bit of a fantasy.

By Fred KaplanPosted Wednesday, July 16, 2008, at 2:49 PM ET

Barack Obama and John McCainIt's a happy coincidence that Barack Obama and John McCain both gave speeches on Tuesday about Iraq and Afghanistan. The big difference between the two is that Obama views the wars as problems, while McCain pretty much does not. In short, while Obama's analysis has some lapses and holes, at least it is an analysis; McCain's is a bit of a fantasy.

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According to some press reports of the two speeches, the candidates' positions on Afghanistan have converged. Obama calls for sending at least two more combat brigades to the country, boosting economic aid by $1 billion, and tripling nonmilitary aid to neighboring Pakistan and guaranteeing that level for the next decade. McCain, who until now hasn't devoted much attention to Afghanistan, calls for sending at least three more brigades, upping economic aid, and giving more of the same to Pakistan, too (though he doesn't hint at the scope of the increase).

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That does sound the same—except for one thing. Obama also calls for substantial withdrawals of troops from Iraq; some of them would be redeployed to Afghanistan. McCain does not advocate troop reductions from Iraq beyond the five surge brigades that left this month because their 15-month tours of duty were complete.

Here's the problem: The U.S. Army is stretched so thin that, according to its own calculations, no extra combat units can be sent to Afghanistan unless the same number of units is pulled out of Iraq. There is no flexibility here. So if McCain wants to put three more brigades in Afghanistan, where is he going to get them?

Referring to Obama's call for withdrawing troops from Iraq, McCain says, "Sen. Obama will tell you we can't win in Afghanistan without losing in Iraq." Cute, but beside the point. Military strategy involves the application of resources to war aims. If McCain wins the White House, the first thing the Joint Chiefs will tell him is that they don't have the resources to fulfill his war aims.

McCain has another solution for Afghanistan: Iraqification. "It is precisely the success of the surge in Iraq that shows us the way to succeed in Afghanistan," McCain says. "It is by applying the tried and true principles of counterinsurgency used in the surge—which Sen. Obama opposed—that we will win in Afghanistan."

There are a few problems with this reasoning. First, it's premature to talk about "the success of the surge." If the goal was to reduce casualties, it's been a success. If the goal was to accomplish strategic objectives, pronouncements of victory are premature.

Second, it's an exaggeration to describe the principles of counterinsurgency as "tried and true"; successful applications, throughout history, can be counted on one hand. One of those principles, however, is that effective operations must take the local context into account.

Third, on that point, it's worth noting that the fiercest fighting in Iraq has taken place in urban neighborhoods, which have been walled off by Gen. David Petraeus, the architect of the counterinsurgency strategy. Petraeus has also had the benefit of an alliance of convenience with Sunni insurgents against al-Qaida jihadists, a cease-fire by the main Shiite insurgent, and a knack for buying off other insurgents not to shoot us. Much of this has been very clever and effective. Some of it has been luck. It's unclear how much of it has relevance for Afghanistan.

Obama doesn't have all the answers for Afghanistan, either. He says that he'll use the two extra brigades as leverage to "seek greater contributions … from NATO allies." Good luck on that one. NATO took command in Afghanistan two years ago on the assumption that it would be a "peacekeeping" operation. When the Taliban resumed fighting, most of them backed out or attached conditions on how, when, and where their troops can be used. Bush's defense secretary, Robert Gates, has played good cop and bad cop to cajole "greater contributions," with minimal results. It's unclear how Obama would do much better.

It's also unclear how much two or three or even four extra brigades would secure Afghanistan from the Taliban, given the sanctuary provided in the tribal areas just across the border in Pakistan. Both candidates stress the need to get Pakistan's government to clamp down on these areas. It's probably unrealistic to expect a mere candidate—McCain or Obama—to devise a specific plan for cleaning up the amazing mess that Bush has left in this realm.