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One-Armed Vegetarian Live-In BoyfriendsThe quest for this year's sexy swing demographic.

By Christopher BeamPosted Wednesday, July 16, 2008, at 6:07 PM ET

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John Dickerson went looking for another elusive demographic: the Hillary-turned-McCain voter. Mickey Kaus explained why Obama's "cling" gaffe would hurt him among the "Joe Sixpack" demographic. Michael Kinsley named "Portfolio Populists" and "Angry Appliances" the new "Soccer Moms" for this millennium.

Non-Cuban Hispanics
The myth of Obama's Latino problem exploded once general-election polls showed him leading McCain in that group by a 2-to-1 margin. But the fight isn't over. McCain alienated Latinos last year when he emphasized border security over his own legislation, which would have created a pathway to citizenship. But at a Latino conference in June, McCain reassured his audience that immigration would be "my top priority yesterday, today and tomorrow." It could make the difference in swing states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, and even Arizona, where a Zogby poll showed Obama leading. In Florida, the increasing dominance of non-Cuban Hispanics, particularly Puerto Ricans, is tipping the Latino vote Democratic. Goodbye, Elian Gonzales; hello, Vieques!

Exurban Cowboys
In 2004, George W. Bush famously won 97 of the 100 fastest-growing counties, many of them exurban communities. It was to be the foundation for the permanent Republican majority, thanks to anti-government sentiment and social conservatism in the exurbs. But some are skeptical of whether McCain can match Bush's level of support in these areas. One reason, some Democrats contend, is they're not as conservative as you think. Political scientist Ruy Teixeira has described exurban voters as "tax-sensitive and concerned about government waste, but not ideologically anti-government. They tend to be religious and family-oriented, but socially moderate in comparison to rural residents. They are not anti-business, but they do hold populist attitudes toward corporate abuse and people who game the system." Based on that description, McCain is on solid ground. But if he's going to stop Obama from winning key swing states like Ohio and Virginia, he'll need strong support from this group.

Soccer-Security-Waitress Moms
Rather than tease out certain subgroups of yore, the trend this year is to consolidate. The thinking is that they're all (well, mostly) white women, who have become a cohesive voting bloc unto themselves. "If a Republican wins among white women, we usually win that election," Republican pollster Neil Newhouse told NBC last month. At that time, Obama had a seven-point lead over McCain among white women—better than John Kerry did in 2004. Whether McCain can catch up depends on whether the ladies decide to vote on security or the economy.

Ageist Grannies
Voters tend to assess candidates of their own age cohort pitilessly. Baby boomers gave Bill Clinton an especially hard time. Seniors often raised Bob Dole's age as a liability. "Older voters think, 'I can't do it so how can you?' " says Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. So while older voters usually lean Republican, John McCain risks alienating his peers merely by acting like them. His recent comments about Social Security being a "disgrace" don't help. "Older voters usually they make up their minds first," Lake says, "but they're still undecided this time."

Comeback Kids
"If you're under 30, the question is not whether you'll vote Obama but whether you'll vote," says Geoff Garin. In past elections, turnout among 18-to-25-year-olds has lagged behind that of their parents. But during primary season, Barack Obama managed to mobilize an unprecedented number of young people, and enthusiasm doesn't seem to be waning. The question is whether the kids will come back for the general. McCain's best hope is not to win them over but to disenchant them with Obama so they stay home. That, or screen a daylong Aqua Teen Hunger Force marathon on Nov. 4.