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The Great Basketball ExodusWhat would happen if America's best high-school hoopsters went to Europe? A Slate thought experiment.

By Jacob LeibenluftPosted Thursday, July 10, 2008, at 4:03 PM ET

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Slate has conducted two previous thought experiments. Daniel Engber asked what would happen if we banned polling during election season. Engber also wondered what the consequences would be if professional sports allowed doping. Slate readers weighed in a few days later.

The worst-case scenario for the NCAA would be if the Euroleague becomes competition for viewers and fans—perhaps reducing the value of its multibillion-dollar television deal with CBS. During LeBron James' senior year in high school, ESPN regularly televised his games. If enough talented, recognizable American players head to Europe, some stateside broadcaster will certainly bid for the TV rights. It's hard to imagine, though, that Euroball would put a dent in ratings for March Madness, especially if Lance Stephenson, Brandon Jennings, et al., play for the likes of FC Barcelona for only a single season.

What about the effect on the players themselves? Brandon Jennings could fail miserably. He will be competing against much older players in a different style of play, he is small for a European point guard, and he'll have to adjust to living and working in a foreign country. Skeptics also point out that European teams, while always on the lookout for new talent, won't roll out the red carpet for flashy American youngsters: Coaches might not give him much playing time, opponents could try to show him up, and teammates will resent him. (And in a wrinkle peculiar to the European landscape, team management might not pay him on time.)

On the plus side, Jennings will get professional coaching and the benefit of practicing every day with experienced teammates. Opting out of college also confers financial benefits: Not only will he immediately earn a good wage for playing hoops, he'll also cash in with big-time sneaker money.

It's no coincidence that the person who floated the idea of a prep star going to Europe was Sonny Vaccaro—a man who worked for Nike, Adidas, and Reebok before deciding to take on the NCAA. The shoe companies jump at any chance to ingratiate themselves with young prospects, even those who are years away from turning professional. It should come as no surprise that Reebok and Nike have already expressed interest in Jennings. Even if high-school stars pull mere six-figure salaries in Europe, going abroad provides the chance to earn an endorsement deal a year earlier—along with getting access to all the connections and leverage the shoe companies bring.

And finally, what about the NBA itself? In the league's worst nightmares, the allure of a jet-setting life abroad and the strong euro will convince high-schoolers to stay in Europe for good. As soon as the Euroleague becomes a viable rival to the NBA, foreign stars like Dirk Nowitzki and Pau Gasol will decide to play closer to home. (Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban described a similar scenario two years ago.) Consider, though, that NBA Commissioner David Stern has signaled his intention to expand the NBA into Europe. An exodus of high-school talent to Europe could make it even easier for the commissioner to make his move. If Brandon Jennings' gamble is a success, he will return to the United States next year—but it may not be his last time playing on the other side of the Atlantic.

Now it's your turn: What do you think would happen if Europe replaced college basketball as the destination for top-flight American talent? Would the NCAA and NBA be ruined, or would the high-school pioneers come back home as failures?

Post your ideas, considered or far-fetched, to the Sports Nut "Fray." I'll wade into "The Fray" myself to discuss the ideas, and the best posts may be compiled in a future column.