Summer Olympics Disaster GuideWhat could go wrong in Beijing? Everything.

(Continued from page 1)

Scenario: More stringent visa policies put in place in the last few months have already hurt tourism in Beijing. The new rules require certain travelers to show invitation letters, airline tickets, and proof of hotel arrangements before applying for entrance into China. A foreign ministry spokesman has stated that these policies reflect China's concern for security during the Olympics. If high-profile visitors, journalists, or athletes can't get into the country, though, the bad PR might drown out any potential security gains.
Chance it could happen: 90 percent
Scary quote: "Business is so bleak. ... Since May, very few foreigners have checked in. Our occupancy rate has dropped by 40 percent," one hotel operator told the New York Times.

Scenario: The U.S. Olympic team, among other delegations, has raised concerns about the safety of the food in the Olympic Village. In response to a New York Times report that the U.S. team was bringing its own beef, chicken, and pork to Beijing, a Chinese official said that outside food would not be allowed in athletes' lodgings. China might come to regret that decision if a sprinter is seen heaving on the starting line.
Chance it could happen: 50 percent
Scary quote: "We had it tested and it was so full of steroids that we never could have given it to athletes. They all would have tested positive," said an American caterer, explaining the potential problem with serving the U.S. team Chinese chicken breasts.

Scenario: Getting water to Beijing, a landlocked city, is a major undertaking. The Chinese government has begun diverting more than 39.6 billion gallons to a dried-up lake near the capital city—a public-works project that has displaced an estimated 300,000 citizens. Northern China has been fighting drought for years, so Beijing's added demands have many Chinese fearing that there won't be enough water to go around. There's also the (slim) possibility of protests by the parched at this year's Games.
Chance it could happen: 30 percent
Scary quote: "Sometimes you wonder if they need all the water more than us here," said Shi Yinzhu, a Chinese sheep herder.

Scenario: If you thought locusts were a problem only in Old Testament times, think again. In 2002, the pests devoured 3.7 million acres of farmland in northern and central China. The insects are now eating their way through Inner Mongolia just in time for the start of the games. The last time locusts reached the capital, locals snagged the protein-filled insects for midsummer snacks. International athletes unaccustomed to the Chinese diet might not be so pleased to find one in their mouth during competition.
Chance it could happen: 50 percent
Scary quote: "The first generation locusts this year in the areas have already hatched," said Gao Wenyuan, a Chinese official. "The harm they do is obvious."

Scenario: The official Web site of the Beijing Olympics says, "Terrorism, in particular, poses the biggest threat" to this year's games. More than 500 detailed security plans have supposedly been mapped out, and one Communist Party official announced that Chinese authorities have already raided a "terrorist gang" with plans for an Olympics takedown. While al-Qaida is a natural suspect for sabotage, keep an eye on Uighur extremists, Muslims in Western China who have become increasingly active in recent months.
Chance it could happen: 10 percent
Scary quote: The U.S. State Department has warned Americans that there is a "heightened risk that extremist groups will conduct terrorist acts within China in the near future."