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The Democrats' Pain ThresholdHow much danger is the party really in?

By John DickersonPosted Monday, March 17, 2008, at 8:21 PM ET

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The Obama camp is hoping for one of two outcomes: Either the nearly 300 remaining uncommitted superdelegates will get spooked and flood to him, putting him over the top for the nomination; or, in a more cinematic move, a handful of superdelegates already pledged to Clinton will defect, go to her, and ask that she stop her campaign to avoid a fight.

Obama benefits from the prospect of chaos, but that's not to suggest that his nomination would be pain-free. Clinton's relentless argument that Obama is not ready to be commander in chief may have opened a door for her supporters to back McCain. In a recent Pew Research poll, 25 percent of Hillary's supporters said they would consider voting for McCain, whereas only 10 percent of Obama's supporters said they would consider doing so. Now, this plays in her favor as a competing argument she can make to the supers.

Many of Clinton's supporters, particularly women, also warn that they feel Obama has benefited from a free ride in the press and has taken advantage of barely veiled sexism. Clinton tellingly referred supporters to the analysis of ABC's Cokie Roberts, who said this of the reaction some women have to Obama: "Here is this woman, she's worked hard, she's done it all the way you're supposed to do it, and then this cute young man comes in and says a bunch of sweet, you know, nothings, and pushes you out of the way. And a lot of women are looking at that and saying, 'There goes my life.' "

There have been hard-fought Democratic primaries before, and delegates have always found a way to pick a nominee. But that person hasn't always gone on to win. In 1968, 1980, and 1984, Democrats fought among themselves and lost to the Republicans in the general election. So, what are this year's party hand-wringers to do? There aren't any easy solutions. Solving the delegate puzzle is in the hands of the risk-averse superdelegates, and lowering the temperature of the daily tit for tat is in the hands of sleep-deprived aides. Perhaps Howard Dean's best move would be to prescribe everyone a sedative.

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John Dickerson is Slate's chief political correspondent and author of On Her Trail. He can be reached at . Follow him on Twitter.
Illustration by Mark Alan Stamaty.
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