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Adios, ComandanteHow did Fidel Castro stay in power for so long?

By Ian BremmerPosted Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2008, at 1:58 PM ET

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If he dies soon, the script demands that his brother succeed him. Fidel formally designated Raúl his successor in October 1997, and as first vice president, Raúl is guaranteed the promotion by the Cuban Constitution. The younger Castro's revolutionary credentials are second only to Fidel's; in Cuba it is said that Raúl personally introduced Fidel to Che Guevara. Raúl Castro has many titles, but none is more important than that of defense minister, which allows him day-to-day command of Cuba's army. By reputation, he is as reactionary as he is uncharismatic, a pale reflection of his remarkable elder brother.

What sort of president might he make? Given that he is 75 years old, he might well be a short-lived one. Four decades of frustrated ambitions and pent-up hunger for change are surely percolating beneath the surface. The next round of succession speculation won't take 47 years to develop.

As a result, Raúl Castro's first task as supreme leader would surely be to reinforce his own position by quashing real or potential domestic opposition. The regime's best international friend, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, might prove helpful with financing. Chávez, who considers Fidel a revolutionary role model and valuable regional ally, already provides Cuba with substantial supplies of oil at bargain prices. He also does whatever he can to insist on Cuba's inclusion in regional organizations, undermining U.S. attempts to isolate the regime politically.

How might Washington respond to the leadership transition? If Raúl is Fidel's immediate successor, a major change in U.S. policy is unlikely. That's too bad. Sanctions have accomplished three things since they were first imposed in 1960: They have inflicted hardships on the Cuban people, they have strengthened Castro's ability to block citizens' access to the resources they need to win some independence from their government, and they have alienated U.S. allies whose companies are penalized for doing business in Cuba.

The more interesting transition will begin when power is finally passed to a president whose name isn't Castro. Fidel's death—whenever it comes—will be jarring enough for the Cuban people, but a generational change in leadership will produce a considerable shock to the system. This change will force Cuba's elite and its citizens, 70 percent of whom are too young to remember pre-Castro Cuba, to re-examine their relationship with the revolution. Once its living embodiment has passed from the scene, Cubans will have to reconsider why Cuba is governed as it is. And those in Washington who oppose the embargo will have a new opportunity to make their case.

Even if Fidel survives his current troubles, he can no longer persuade his people his command is unassailable. By passing decision-making power to someone else for the first time since 1959, even if the arrangement is only temporary, talk of succession can never again be fully quieted. Planning for Cuba's future, both at home and abroad, has gathered new momentum.