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Michael Vick, 2010 MVP?Evaluating the chances of the quarterback making an NFL comeback.

By Peter Keating
Posted Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2007, at 6:14 PM ET

(Continued from page 1)

It's much the same in other sports. Ryne Sandberg, a baseball Hall of Famer based on what he accomplished before he retired in 1994, was a below-average player when he returned to the Cubs in 1996 and 1997. Mike Tyson wasn't the same after he got out of prison.

There were failed comebacks in the early days of pro sports, too. Home Run Baker, underappreciated today as one of the greatest third-basemen of all time, left the major leagues twice, once in 1915 over a salary dispute and again in 1920 when his wife and daughter contracted scarlet fever. Each time he returned after a year off to play with the Yankees; he was an effective but no longer dominant hitter from 1916 to 1919 and wasn't much good from 1921 to 1922.

Of course, many players lose entire seasons to injury and come back strong. But someone like Francisco Liriano—the Twins phenom returning this year from Tommy John surgery—or Greg Oden—the Blazers rookie now recovering from microfracture surgery—can focus his entire life on rehabbing and will enjoy state-of-the-art facilities while he does so. Prison may let Michael Vick build discipline, but it will rob him of the chance to practice with and perfect his timing against the best football players in the world.

And not to kick a man when he's down, but while Vick is in jail, his skills will be diminishing from a level that wasn't as high as many people believed. On New Year's Day 2003, when Vick took the Falcons to Green Bay and upset the Packers in the playoffs, it was easy to believe he would soon explode into greatness. Instead, that game was his peak moment.

Vick made three Pro Bowls from 2002 to 2005 and even drew one MVP vote in 2004, the year Peyton Manning threw for a record 49 touchdowns. But beyond his ability to dazzle, he has completed only 53.8 percent of his pass attempts and averaged just 6.7 yards per pass attempt over his career. His career high in touchdowns is 20 (24 including rushing TDs). Vick has paved the way for a new generation of mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. But if you turn each of his stats down a notch, you get Kordell Stewart.

Vick will be older and thicker in 2009, and the league will be bigger and faster. It's probably a good idea for him to get some job training while he's in prison. Either that, or he could declare for the United Football League draft.

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Peter Keating writes about sports business for ESPN the Magazine.
Photograph of Michael Vick by Haraz N. Ghanbari/AFP/Getty Images.
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