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How Are We Doing?What Iraqis think of the U.S. occupation.

By Fred KaplanPosted Thursday, Oct. 25, 2007, at 8:12 PM ET

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Yesterday, Fred Kaplan highlighted the military's change in tactics from the ground to airstrikes, which he warned "generates more local hostility." In July, he advocated the "least bad plan for leaving Iraq"—division—and then recalled the lessons of the partition of India in 1947. In August, he argued that Bush would have to call up the draft or call up the French to alleviate the troop shortages. He re-evaluated the feasible goals of an occupation and the options for withdrawing earlier this month.

As for how they view us, except in the Kurdish provinces, the vast majority of those surveyed think the United States is doing a bad job in protecting Iraqis and in providing basic services.

More alarming, 57 percent of Iraqis think that it is acceptable to attack American soldiers. That figure is up from 51 percent in March and a mere 17 percent back in February 2004. (Only 7 percent of Kurds agree with this sentiment; if they are removed from the poll, the hostility is more glowering still. Half of Shiites think it's all right to attack Americans, up from 35 percent in March; 94 percent of our new allies the Sunni Arabs think it's fine to do so, statistically unchanged from the 93 percent who thought so back in March.)

So much for our perceived legitimacy as an occupying power.

The Iraqis don't look so kindly on their own leaders, either. In March, 49 percent of those surveyed said they had confidence in the Iraqi central government. In August, that figure had fallen to 39 percent.

The poll contains some good news, too. The image of the Iraqi army and police forces is improving. In March, when Iraqis were asked who was most in command of security in their area at that time, a majority in several cities and provinces said nobody was in command. When the question was asked again in August, a plurality said the Iraqi security forces were. (Fewer Iraqis, across the country, said U.S. forces were.)

In March, when Iraqis were asked whom they blamed most for the violence, a majority blamed the United States. In the August poll, a vast array of entities gets considerable blame; none of them, including America, dominates the list.

But then the question arises, just as it arises in discussions stateside: What is to be done? The answer is muddled, but it is fairly clear what most Iraqis want not to be done. Nearly all of them want the Americans to leave at some point—when their government is stronger or when security is better or when their army can act independently. But most of them don't want us to go home just yet.

Nationwide, the percentage of those who do want us to leave now has grown, from 35 percent in March to 47 percent in August, but they still fall short of a majority. In two cities (Basra and Kirkuk), a slight majority (51 percent to 55 percent) wants us and other members of the coalition to go now. In only two provinces does a substantial majority want us out immediately: Ninevah (67 percent) and—oddly, given the alliance we've struck with the tribal leaders there—Anbar (70 percent). In most provinces, only one-quarter to two-fifths feel that way. Among Kurds, it's more like one-tenth.

And so, in this regard, Iraqis are not so different from Americans: They hate the war, they hate the occupation, but they don't know what to do about it; they don't know how to bring it to an end without very possibly sowing still greater destruction.