Green PeaceDid Al Gore deserve a Nobel Prize for his work on global warming?

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These emerging examples suggest that global warming might lead to increasing conflict around the world. But a look back through the last thousand years shows how quickly even a mild, natural shift in the climate can produce a period of cataclysmic violence. David Zhang, a professor at the University of Hong Kong, scoured China's dynastic archives for records of war and rebellion and compared them with historical temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. In the span between the 11^th and 20^th centuries, Zhang counted 15 periods of intense fighting. All but three of them occurred in the decades immediately following a period of unusual cold. Plunging agricultural yields, Zhang concluded, led to famine, rebellion, and war. He also found that dynastic collapses tended to follow the oscillations of the temperature cycle.

But what rattled Zhang most was the scale of these historical climate changes, as compared to the warming the world has experienced this century. The upheavals in China occurred when the average temperature had dropped just 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit, less than half the magnitude of the change we've experienced over the last century.

Of course, modern societies have capabilities far beyond those of the medieval Chinese, and the countries of today—at least the richer ones—are likely to be able to ride out any early climate shocks. Indeed, even in medieval China, the conflicts triggered by man-made climate change didn't happen immediately. In his study, Zhang saw a lag of 10 to 30 years between the temperature shifts and the outbreaks of war—it takes time for a society to deplete its resources and for tensions to build. In the modern world, it will be the poor countries that suffer the first serious effects. Drought-stricken Australia can spend billions on wind and solar-powered desalinization plants, but the Pakistanis who rely on melting glaciers for their water supply will be able to do nothing but suffer the shortages.

Once a region does succumb to war, the same climate factors that created the conflict make it harder (and more expensive) to reverse course. In Darfur, the drought has eased, but water remains scarce; now U.N. officials are scratching their head over how to provide each of the planned 26,000 peacekeepers with at least 85 liters a day. (Meanwhile, humanitarian groups struggle to provide the displaced with enough water for drinking and cooking.) The peace mission is likely to require 20 daily flights just for water. Even if the mission is successful, Darfur's environmental degradation means that a lasting end to the violence is a long way off: There's no longer enough good land to allow for an easy return to the status quo.

In awarding the prize, the Nobel committee emphasized that time is running out. "Action is necessary now, before climate change moves beyond man's control," said Mjøs, the committee chairman. We may not yet know with certainty what this means for conflict in the world—in terms of where, when, and if fighting will break out. But the evidence is mounting that climate change will lead to more and longer-lasting wars. Do we really want to wait for the data to pile up?

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